Illustration of global economic growth showed signs of slowing with significant downside risks. Some of the risk of global economic growth will even continue throughout 2016.
Recovery occurs Massive
The United States will be a leader in the recovery of the world economy. While economic growth in emerging markets will be driven by oil and commodity prices are low.
US economic recovery also occurs very quickly exceeded analysts' expectations throughout 2014. Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, but the US managed to rise rapidly in the next two quarters.
While economic growth in developing countries slowed down due to the drop in global oil prices.
How is the condition of the global economy next year? The following predictions:
> The interest rate the Fed
The Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015. In contrast to the consensus prediction that predicts an increase in interest rates in the second-quarter of 2015, QNB believe global disinflationary pressures and the strengthening of the dollar As will make inflation remained near zero level in 2015.
As a result, the Fed will not raise interest rates as expected given the level of inflation is still below the target of 2 percent. If the Fed does raise interest rates, the impact on the global economy would be really bad.
> Low Volatility and challenge
Volatility seems low in all markets except rates, although low liquidity may lead to some increase in the meantime. Volatility of economic data fell to a new bottom. Unemployment will decrease and the risk of recession in the US is also low.
> The Low Rate of Return
All types of assets will provide a low rate and the effect becomes something important. The rate of return on equity is still more attractive than bonds and the like. Equity multiples will remain above average and may move higher, even in the US.
> Differences Remain Market Lasts
The difference between market growth and monetary policies throughout the developed world will continue into next year. The Fed is likely to slow to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan remained at the previous level.
The value of the US dollar will also be strengthened due to the difference in interest rates between the US and other countries.
> European Recession
The eurozone will enter another deflation and recession. The sharp drop in oil prices will push the euro zone into the era of deflation in 2015 with a number of efforts from the European Central Bank to avoid losses.
This condition will lead to investment and consumption are much weaker and push the currency in the area went into recession.
> Chinese Economic Growth Slowing
China's economic growth will slow to 6-7 percent over the next few years. The best opportunity to express a positive view of the market is likely to come when investors are moving towards such extreme pessimism earlier this year or in the summer of 2013. The decline in house prices and weaker global commodity prices will continue to depress domestic demand and creating a very strong disinflationary pressures.
Chinese government should try to do a further stimulus to the economy, although there will be enough to prevent the country from the economic slowdown. Slowing it also will push inflation to near zero.
> The emergence of the New Order Oil
The price of oil will be lower for some time. Maybe it would be a problem for energy stocks and commodities such as copper and aluminum are used in the oil production process.
> Crisis oil exporter
Some developing countries that export oil would fall on the balance of payments crises. The decline in world oil prices will encourage countries like Russia and Venezuela defaulted on its debt that is due.
These conditions can also be transmitted to other developing countries and encourage international agencies to intervene.
> Commodity prices
Low commodity prices and global economic slowdown will have an impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries.
As of this moment, the decline in oil prices will encourage slowdown ambitious infrastructure investment programs in several major countries.
> Developing Country Markets Improved
Many emerging markets will fix the imbalance, which triggered the oil and commodity prices lower so as to provide deflation and increase market growth.
> Low Inflation
Sluggish labor market, as evidenced by the low wage inflation, would survive. The risk of deflation will force other central banks to act as inflation remains below their target.
> Fixed Mighty Dollar
The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of countries other G10 members still mighty.
Overall, global growth in 2015-2016 will be weakened even further than the previous year. Referring to the IMF World Economic Outlook projections in October, the global economy will grow from 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent in 2015.
Hopefully there is still optimism the global economy in the 2016/7.....'s.
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