Restlessness Global Economy in 2015 untl 2016...2017...?

Illustration of global economic growth showed signs of slowing with significant downside risks. Some of the risk of global economic growth will even continue throughout 2016.

Recovery occurs Massive

The United States will be a leader in the recovery of the world economy. While economic growth in emerging markets will be driven by oil and commodity prices are low.

US economic recovery also occurs very quickly exceeded analysts' expectations throughout 2014. Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, but the US managed to rise rapidly in the next two quarters.

While economic growth in developing countries slowed down due to the drop in global oil prices.

How is the condition of the global economy next year? The following predictions:

> The interest rate the Fed

The Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015. In contrast to the consensus prediction that predicts an increase in interest rates in the second-quarter of 2015, QNB believe global disinflationary pressures and the strengthening of the dollar As will make inflation remained near zero level in 2015.

As a result, the Fed will not raise interest rates as expected given the level of inflation is still below the target of 2 percent. If the Fed does raise interest rates, the impact on the global economy would be really bad.

> Low Volatility and challenge

Volatility seems low in all markets except rates, although low liquidity may lead to some increase in the meantime. Volatility of economic data fell to a new bottom. Unemployment will decrease and the risk of recession in the US is also low.

> The Low Rate of Return

All types of assets will provide a low rate and the effect becomes something important. The rate of return on equity is still more attractive than bonds and the like. Equity multiples will remain above average and may move higher, even in the US.

> Differences Remain Market Lasts

The difference between market growth and monetary policies throughout the developed world will continue into next year. The Fed is likely to slow to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan remained at the previous level.

The value of the US dollar will also be strengthened due to the difference in interest rates between the US and other countries.

> European Recession

The eurozone will enter another deflation and recession. The sharp drop in oil prices will push the euro zone into the era of deflation in 2015 with a number of efforts from the European Central Bank to avoid losses.

This condition will lead to investment and consumption are much weaker and push the currency in the area went into recession.

> Chinese Economic Growth Slowing

China's economic growth will slow to 6-7 percent over the next few years. The best opportunity to express a positive view of the market is likely to come when investors are moving towards such extreme pessimism earlier this year or in the summer of 2013. The decline in house prices and weaker global commodity prices will continue to depress domestic demand and creating a very strong disinflationary pressures.

Chinese government should try to do a further stimulus to the economy, although there will be enough to prevent the country from the economic slowdown. Slowing it also will push inflation to near zero.

> The emergence of the New Order Oil

The price of oil will be lower for some time. Maybe it would be a problem for energy stocks and commodities such as copper and aluminum are used in the oil production process.

> Crisis oil exporter

Some developing countries that export oil would fall on the balance of payments crises. The decline in world oil prices will encourage countries like Russia and Venezuela defaulted on its debt that is due.

These conditions can also be transmitted to other developing countries and encourage international agencies to intervene.

> Commodity prices

Low commodity prices and global economic slowdown will have an impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries.

As of this moment, the decline in oil prices will encourage slowdown ambitious infrastructure investment programs in several major countries.

> Developing Country Markets Improved

Many emerging markets will fix the imbalance, which triggered the oil and commodity prices lower so as to provide deflation and increase market growth.

> Low Inflation

Sluggish labor market, as evidenced by the low wage inflation, would survive. The risk of deflation will force other central banks to act as inflation remains below their target.

> Fixed Mighty Dollar

The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of countries other G10 members still mighty.

Overall, global growth in 2015-2016 will be weakened even further than the previous year. Referring to the IMF World Economic Outlook projections in October, the global economy will grow from 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent in 2015.

Hopefully there is still optimism the global economy in the 2016/7.....'s.

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Political Component Pricing On Government Jokowi

The fall of crude oil prices, which devastated the economies of many countries, is considered a political. In fact, thick with political conspiracy.

Mr. President Jokowi Fuel Prices Down, Prices Staple Stable Whenever ?.

When fuel prices go down and occurs When crude oil prices are low, should would not want all food prices and public transportation costs go down as well.

Now that fuel prices go down, but food prices and the cost of public transportation still averse down. If it's like this, entrepreneurs, owners of public transportation, public transportation drivers, and rogue traders, who want their own wishes that make economic vandals in this country.

Lest the merchants and entrepreneurs accord just as much profit from its activities. Rollicking berkospirasi colonizing nation itself.

Learning from the past, has repeatedly experienced by Indonesia. As fuel prices rise, then the other prices go up. However, is not true if the fuel prices down. Many fictional pretext, when down the fuel no decrease in inflation or economic growth significantly. And so forth reasons that sometimes do not make sense, tend to want to own victory.

Society hopes Jokowi government immediately intervene to control the prices of basic necessities in the market. Because if it continues to rise will affect the economic uncertainty society.

Government Jokowi most responsible in ensuring basic needs will be dragged down the price decline in the price of fuel oil (BBM), which has been done in the near future.

Good news, the policy of fuel coming again of CMEA Djalil. He mentioned that the new price of fuel in Frebruari will be determined based on the Mean of Plats Singapore (MOPS) counted 24 Carre 2014 until 24 January 2015. fall of world oil prices up to US $ 50 per barrel in turn will be followed by a decrease in fuel prices in Indonesia.

"Premium price is lowered as they drop in crude oil prices on the world market, but when the world market price of crude oil rose again it will be adjusted again. That is because the premium price has followed the market mechanism or without subsidies, "he said.

Mr. Minister Sofyan Djalil to the media also said that now is being calculated losses and we will adjust. I'm sure in February 2015 will go down again. The government plans to set the price of premium fuel in two weeks according to world oil prices. "If pertamax set in two weeks. For a while the premium price is set once a month, but may be adjusted in two weeks.

In February the government berenca down again, the lower middle class hopes followed the decline in the price of staples or other goods and services. Because after the fuel price hike back to the discourse of decline in prices was not yet under control needs. And again, if the prices of all been on the market, what it means to the people in the care of a free market without government protection with respect to its existence.

The drop in world oil prices is not just a mere economic game. Behind all that, there is a big scenario played the oil producing countries of the world. Political scenario is referred to as the main motive in the global competition.

The oil game has been going on for the past few months. All countries are now affected, either positively or negatively. So, who is to play the politics of oil since June 2014 and up to now? Political analysts pointed to Saudi Arabia and the United States (US) to be the mastermind behind the drop in world oil prices.

They use oil market depressed for to destroy his enemies, especially Iran and Russia. Petroleum can be a deadly weapon to weaken a country, especially in terms of economics and politics. According to Edward Lucas of The Economist magazine, Arabia and the US to use oil to weaken the powers of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.

Despite US and European economic sanctions related to the Russian annexation of the Crimea and the geopolitical game in eastern Ukraine, Moscow remains resilient and confident. However, the recent decline in world oil prices makes Russia furious and half desperate.

Russia is the country's third largest oil producer in the world. Russia depends on oil prices. "Nearly half of Russia's revenue comes from oil and gas," Lucas said, quoted by the Daily Mail. Oil prices reached the lowest point in the last five years, under USD50 / barrel last week made Russia almost stopped breathing.

The price of oil is too low it can weaken the ruble, Russian currency. It causes panic. The movement of money out of Russia increased sharply. It became the worst days for Russia. The world is to know how oil prices are so low is able to destroy the Soviet Union in 1991 because of the weakening economy.

Now, low oil became a serious threat on the Putin dictatorship trying to revive the Soviet empire. The question is now, whether Putin will fall?

"Political component always determines the price of oil. The moment of crisis is also due to political, "Putin said in an interview with Chinese media, published in the Russian presidential website. Putin has had a special strategy. He no longer sell oil and gas to European markets. Its proximity to Asia Pacific countries make Putin more confident.

In addition, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the decline in world oil prices recently was a political conspiracy.

In a statement, Rouhani not specifically mention the countries he considered conspiring drop in world oil prices.

"The decline in oil prices is not something ordinary and nothing to do with the economy, is not only related to the global recession," said President Hassan Rouhani.

"The main reason is political conspiracy by certain countries.

Previous Iranian government tried to suppress the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce production quotas as an effort to raise the price, but in a recent meeting of OPEC decided not to change the amount of production. 

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Emergency, Fed Funds Rate Increase In Time Near

Re-mighty dollar. The US currency strengthened against all of its 16 major counterparts after rising at least 3.7% against all major currencies during 2014.

While Morgan Stanley reported the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in less than 8 months compared with the predictions of almost 13 months in October last. And some analysts expect the US central bank the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (Fed Funds Rate) at the end of 2015 or early 2016, in contrast to the consensus that predicted a rise in the second quarter or third quarter of 2014.

The dollar rallied as the manufacturing sector data back reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year while other central banks extend its stimulus policies. Other data that supports pengutan currency is the manufacturing sector PMI data, where data from the ISM manufacturing PMI was at 55.5 last month from 58.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

The increase in the Fed Funds rate can occur at the end of 2015, the Fed Funds rate will rise when inflation is above expectations.

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The Movement of FOREX Trading, System, Purchase, Characteristic.(1)

Many advantages when we choose to trade forex. One of them is the forex trading hours that 'never sleeps'. You could say we all already know that forex trading or forex is open 24 hours a day and 5 days a week. It is a very long period of time. Arguably the open market which continues without any rest or sleep. For traders, this would be great fun. Because they are likely to multiply profits at any time.

However, like most ordinary market, not every moment is always crowded. There are days when the market is crowded with visitors. And there is a time and hour where the empty market although the market remains open. There are certain months where the market visitors actually exceeds the capacity.

So insight into the time and hours in forex trading, it is also very important. You can customize your character by character trading strategies forex trading time in general. In order that the results obtained maximum of every trade you.

Started FOREX Trading

Forex trader you must already know that forex trading if measured by GMT time Indonesia, began on Monday morning until Saturday morning. But maybe you do not know exactly what time it starts trading.

Forex trading world, broadly divided into 5 major markets, namely: Session Sydney (Australia), Session Tokyo (Asia), Session London (Europe), Frankfurt (Germany), Session New York (USA). As we know there is a time difference that is long enough between Australia and America (+16 hours). This is what makes forex trading market never sleeps. When one market closes, another market being open, and so on.

For more details, let's look at the time and the hour when each market open / close:

1. Sydney, Australia

Open: 5:00 pm

Close: 13:00

2. Tokyo, Japan

Open: 6:00 pm

Close: 14:00 pm

3. Frankfurt, Germany

Open: 1:00 pm

Close: 21:00 pm

4. London, England

Open: 2:00 pm

Close: 22:00 pm

5. New York, USA

Open: 19:00 pm

Close: 3:00 pm +1

When viewed from the five major market every day, then an hour most mornings forex trading is Sydney, Australia 05:00, including Monday that the world of forex trading week begins. While the closure is New York, USA at 03:00 early the next day. You can see that forex trading is almost done 24 hours. It is a great opportunity for us traders, because they have a greater opportunity to develop trading capital or take profit.

Furthermore, let's see how it compares to the movement of pips, in each market.

Table difference in price movements (PIPS) forex pairs

Pair Session Tokyo / Asia Session London / Europe Session New York / USA

EUR / USD 76 114 92

GBP / USD 92 127 99

USD / JPY 51 66 59

AUD / USD 77 83 81

NZD / USD 62 72 70

USD / CAD 57 96 96

USD / CHF 67 102 83

EUR / JPY 102 129 107

GBP / JPY 118 151 132

AUD / JPY 98,107,103

EUR / GBP 78 61 47

EUR / CHF 79 109 84

Markets London / Europe

European markets took the largest share is nearly 36% of the total trade. European market is currently the most crowded, where thousands of entrepreneurs world-class snapper forex trading transactions.

Some traits / characteristics of the Tokyo market session / Asia are:

* Due to the London session has time overlapping with other market then this session becomes very crowded. This resulted in very high liquidity and spreads into smaller pips.

* Range of price movement becomes very high (Volatile).

* Trends happened majority will continue until the beginning of the session on the New York market trade.

* During the day volatility will decrease over the noon hour to eat and wait for America to open session.

* Some important news in the Euro zone will also greatly influence price movements.

* At the time of the European session the pair's all become very attractive for trading, because of hectic trade. But who strictest remain on major pairs: EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, and USD / CHF. Some cross pair like EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY also can be glimpsed as it moves quite stable, many traders liked this cross twisted pair.

* Apart from Japan, the countries with the second economic power (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Seoul) is also active in the transaction. Along with China, Japan is exporting countries that besides the Bank of Japan, China, the commercial businesses (Export / Import) also also participated actively traded.

* At certain times of liquidity could be very small, visible at a very small price movements (do not change within a relatively long). This small price movements that allow formed breakout level of previous trends that occurred in the American market, so there is a phase of consolidation of a pair.

* Most of the movement occurred when the early trade, which at times was a fundamental economic news released or out.

* Market tokyo little lot will also affect the markets that open further, Because traders in Europe and America will see what happened earlier through the Tokyo market.

* Pair that might be interesting for you to trade in the Asian session is, JPY and AUD. Given China also has grown to become the new economic powers, when they released the second important news Pair will also be affected.

Market NewYork / USA

NewYork market accounted for approximately 19% of the total trade. New York is the center of trade and business in America, the city is also nicknamed the "City that never sleep 'means the city that never sleeps.

And as we all know that the USD is the currency of the world, nearly 90% of trade will always involve dollars in it.

Some traits / characteristics of NewYork market session are:

* High liquidity during the morning (early trade), because of overlapping with the European session.

* When the important economic news US release will have enormous power to move prices in pasar.Ingat 90% of the trade involving the dollar.

* After the European markets closed, the liquidity and volatility also tends to decrease (when the US afternoon session).

* On Friday US time, the trade will decline drastically, as traders in Asia and Europe had ceased to move, they are preparing for the holiday weekend.

* Some of the trend reversal may also be common in the period of time after the afternoon session Americans. Some traders do not want to leave the position open to avoid things or news that may occur at the weekend.

* As in the European market, all very interesting couple pair played in the American session, you just have to be extra pay more attention to the time when important news will be and is being released, the dollar will move wildly and even skipping.

Above you have studied the general character of each market, let's move a little to know the characteristics of the pair on certain days. So that you have a portrait of intact and you can determine when, hours, time and day that suits you.

Let's see Table pips according to the price movement. Pair Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Pair Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday (morning)

EUR / USD 69 109 142 136 145 144

GBP / USD 73 149 172 152 169 179

USD / JPY 41 65 82 91 124 98

AUD / USD 58 84 114 99 115 111

NZD / USD 28 81 98 87 100 96

USD / CAD 43 93 112 106 120 125

USD / CHF 55 84 119 107 104 116

EUR / JPY 19 133 178 159 223 192

GBP / JPY 100 169 213 179 270 232

EUR / GBP 35 74 81 79 75 91

EUR / CHF 35 55 55 64 87 76

Seen that Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, is the time when the most crowded and busy market.

When is the best time and hours for forex trading:

* The European session was the most busy and crowded.

* When overlapping provide liquidity and high volatility, this is your chance to immediately achieve the gain / profit in a short time.

* By mid-week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) where the price movement pips are at the highest value.

When is the time and hours that are not suitable for forex trading:.............................next

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The Movement of Forex Trading, System, Purchase, Characteristic (2)

.....When is the best time and hours for forex trading:

* The European session was the most busy and crowded.

* When overlapping provide liquidity and high volatility, this is your chance to immediately achieve the gain / profit in a short time.

* By mid-week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) where the price movement pips are at the highest value.

When is the time and hours that are not suitable for forex trading:

Most movement occurs when the early trade, which fundamentally new economic news released.

Tokyo market will also have some impact to open markets further, Because traders in Europe and America will see what happens before through the Tokyo market.

At certain times of liquidity could be very small, visible at a very small price movements.

The currency pair you are trading that may be on the Asian session is, JPY and AUD.

London's Calling

The European market is forex trading sessions of the most crowded, where thousands of world-class entrepreneurs forex trading transactions. Here are the characteristics of the session in the London market, namely:

Range of price movement becomes very high (Volatile).

Some important news in the Euro zone will also greatly influence price movements.

Since the London session has time overlapping with other markets, the forex trading session becomes very crowded. This resulted in very high liquidity and spreads into smaller pips.

During the day volatility will decline as lunch break and wait for the American session open.

The trend will continue until the majority of the early session on the New York market trade.

Forex trading sessions on European time makes all very interesting pair to be traded. As in the major pairs: EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, and USD / CHF. Some cross pair like EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY also can be glimpsed as it moves quite stable, many traders liked this cross twisted pair.

New York, New York

New York is the center of trade and business in America, the city is also nicknamed the "City that never sleep 'means the city that never sleeps. Since the USD is the currency of the world, and nearly 90% of trade will always involve dollars in it. The following characteristics of the American market:

After European markets closed, the liquidity and volatility also tends to decrease. Especially during the afternoon session of the United States.

Economic news can move the market price, considering all trades involve the dollar.

High liquidity may occur at the beginning of trading in the morning, because of overlapping with the European session.

On Friday US time, the trade will decline drastically, as traders in Asia and Europe had stopped moving, and get ready for the holiday weekend.

Some of the trend reversal may also be common in the period of time after the afternoon session Americans. Some traders do not want to leave the position open to avoid things or news that may occur at the weekend.

In forex trading session at United, all twisted pair is also very interesting to play. You just need extra attention to the important news that will come out, because the dollar can move wildly.

You can search for more profit by utilizing forex trading session European time. Because the European session is the most busy and crowded. Similarly, when there is overlap, you can make a profit in a short time.

Asian markets are less suitable for aggressive traders, due to the volatility and low liquidity. And do not forget to always pay attention to the news or other important events. Even as the World Cup soccer event could make the market be quiet, because the attention of traders switch.

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Of Which The Broker Forex Gain

Surely every broker has different rules that, in charging for their services. There is something of an interesting fee / commission each lot there that just from the difference / spread between the buy / sell. And generally that is now used broker is from the spread. Usually about 2-3 pips for major currencies (US, Euro, Yen, Pound, or who crowded traded), and can be up to 5 pips for secondary currency. From about 3 Pips is certainly not all merupkan net profit brokers, no operating costs, the cost of the fee to the broker who is greater, the cost of commissions to agents, etc.

 

What is a Forex Broker

Forex broker is a party, may be a company, institution, agency, or individual which stands to reconcile between the seller and the buyer. Then the product whether that transaction? Surely the form of foreign exchange forex = = currency of the country.

In the normal course of trade between countries, an exchange of currency. And this exchange has been going on since the days when the economic relations between countries began to bond with each other. So it might be argued that this forex broker also there has been since time immemorial. Seeing the development of inter-connection between the state economy that increasingly massive, and saw the forex exchange market, forex brokers certainly more present in the world.

Why Do Need Broker

In fact forex trading activity is dominated by major central banks around the world. With most of the portion of the major currencies such as the US, Euro, Yen and Pound. Well in order to carry out transactions with banks / institutions such large, for us traders (small scale) are not allowed. In addition we have no relation, also the existence of a minimum limit of transactions.

Well, this is where forex brokers take the role, retail forex broker will arrange for any individual trader can allow it to join the forex trading. So the broker will forward the request of traders to the broker who is greater, and so on so will every trader requests can be accommodated in the forex market a big and massive.

Online Forex Broker

Ancient pre-Internet traders using the old communication model for each transaction to the broker. That is by phone, but now this has been advanced age (no internet) traders can directly be real time in forex trading. With advanced application specific (metatrader) trader can do monitor the price, order execution is much faster and in real time. In addition, traders are also equipped with a variety of tools for analysis, access news, chat / discussion, etc.

With the support that the faster internet connection, it is practically almost all brokers in the world should facilitate online trading so as not to be left tradernya and not outdated.

With this online forex trading, it is very much easy for traders. In addition can be done anywhere, also can be done whenever a trader wants.

Regulation, and the legality of Forex Brokers

The problem that then arises is how to choose a forex broker online forex broker diatara hundreds of them. When it was still a bit certainly would not want us to choose a broker that there are, but not right now. Surely these brokers is definitely some good and some bad. There are professionals who work there who take funds from their own clients. This case we need to understand that we are not wrong in choosing a broker. So we need to be careful and do not easily tempted by the bonuses / promotions that are offered by many online forex brokers on the internet.

One who can help us see the broker is to find out info about regulation / regulator which is followed by the broker. Regulated broker that means he must follow the principles and rules that exist in the regulator which he attended.

These regulators generally is the agency / institution under financial official of the state government. The better the regulator is the rule that is followed by the broker will be intense. Brokers can not operate with standard inconsequential, or operating permit can be revoked and sanctioned by regulators.

Surely we should also know that good regulators in countries where? include: NFA (USA), FSA (UK), FSC (Mauritius), and many more.

Various Type Broker

Generally traders do not care, and it is impossible to know how to actually manage each transaction broker who entered from the client. We can only them alone. Brokers who do not clearly regulated and offer tantalizing spread and bonuses tend to get into the type of city where every transaction will be fought solely by the broker. Well with brokers like this there is a danger, because there is a possibility that the broker lost, and eventually went bankrupt. We recommend that you select the type of STP broker / Non Dealing, where each transaction will be forwarded to the bank or broker who is greater.