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FED ,WHY SHOULD IN JUNE 2016..Forex #1


The Fed raised interest rates in June would be the appropriate policy according to the committee, as it is written in the minutes of the meeting.The Fed failed to provide any guidance in its FOMC outcome on April 27th through the post-meeting statement. However, the minutes of the April FOMC released on May 18 and reveals more detail how officials view the US central bank will hike interest rates.Markets that were previously convinced the Fed will still show the signal dovish to see the condition of the global economy before raising interest rates (based on the FOMC and statements of Fed officials prior to April), immediately changed course 180 degrees and assuming the claims as hawkish sentiment. The US dollar initially rose lackluster immediately thereafter.From here came the questions, why the Fed should raise interest rates soon? What can be concluded from the minutes of the FOMC? Here's the explanation.According to a note written by John Crudele, NY Post columnist economy, there are some rational reason to raise US interest rates in June:• The US economy is still withered since the Great Recession of 2007, but in between, there are some periods that allow higher interest rates. Except in December 2015 and then, the Fed has always dismissed the possibility of raising interest rates, this may be because central banks are worried about the negative reaction in the stock market.• Currently the Fed had run out of ammunition. The Fed chairman will probably deny this, but with interest rates still near zero, the Fed could no longer be lowered if the economy gets worse.• Avoid political sentiment with respect to the US Presidential election campaign period ahead of elections in November.• Consider solid US employment, especially the unemployment rate had reached 5.0 per cent (although Cruedele acknowledges that the data is a bit unreasonable)In general, as once expressed by one of the officials of the Fed, the impact of not raising interest rates in a timely manner due to account for inflation, seen as more dangerous than the impact of raising interest rates. This is the dilemma conditions being experienced by Yellen and his colleagues today.Apart from these estimates, it should be noted that the results of the April FOMC voting yesterday, there is an implicit impression that the Fed is essentially concerned if rising interest rates again delayed. Most Federal Reserve officials, who usually dovish or neutral was suddenly support a rate hike in June.Call it the Robert Kaplan, president of the Fed's Dallas region. Kaplan stated its support for a rate hike in the near future but still warned about the impact of global economic and political, one of which is Brexit.In addition there are also Kaplan, Patrick Harker, president of the Fed's Philadelphia region is worrying the stability of the Chinese economy. However, the applicability Harker stressed that he was unsure if the Fed could still raise interest rates two or even three more times this year. However, both Kaplan and Harker, both of them do not have a voice in determining the allocation of monetary policy this year.US economic data in general (except inflation) has been running in line with expectations, so, feared if not soon raise interest rates, the people will be confused on what the committee actually backrest and will erode public confidence in the credibility of the committee.

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