JAKARTA. Bank Indonesia (BI) recognizes the position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves were US $ 112.0 miiar sebesaf enough to cope with the planned increase in US interest rates the Fed next year. BI rate the Fed pressure adjustment by the market has been going on since last year.
Chief Economist BII Juniman argues, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves position is still sufficient to deal with the pressure when an increase in US interest rates next year. The reason, according Juniman, rising interest rates next year is still relatively small.
He estimates that domestic interest rates will rise uncle sam 100 bps to 1.25%. With a 100 bps increase in the capital outflow, nor the outflows of funds will not be significant. Investors will only be out for a while and went back to Indonesia as the adjustment process.
Juniman, a large outflow of new opportunities occur in 2018. "It is estimated that US interest rates in 2018 will reach 5%. This will happen turbulence in global financial markets, especially developing countries," he explained.
Therefore, during the period up to 2018, Indonesia had to prepare. Fix the fundamentals that investors want to invest long term in Indonesia. In effect, the Indonesian foreign exchange reserves thickened and ready to face the long-term pressure the Fed.
On the other hand, an economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA) David Sumual argues, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves position today than short-term debt still needs further improvement. David Counts, cadev position by the end of October of US $ 112.0 billion, just enough to pay two times the short-term debt.
Neighboring countries capacity four times to six times the short-term debt. Therefore, David saw the position of Indonesia's foreign reserves should ditingkatka again. "At least up to three times. It's important to face turmoil next year," he explained.
The volatility is meant by David is a planned increase in US interest rates. To increase foreign exchange reserves, the central bank could expand the domestic financial instruments to deepen the market. Step extend the tenor of forex swap auction (fx swaps) foreign exchange (forex) that has been done BI is a positive thing. However, the instrument needs to be expanded further deepening of the market.
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