Restlessness Global Economy in 2015 untl 2016...2017...?

Illustration of global economic growth showed signs of slowing with significant downside risks. Some of the risk of global economic growth will even continue throughout 2016.

Recovery occurs Massive

The United States will be a leader in the recovery of the world economy. While economic growth in emerging markets will be driven by oil and commodity prices are low.

US economic recovery also occurs very quickly exceeded analysts' expectations throughout 2014. Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, but the US managed to rise rapidly in the next two quarters.

While economic growth in developing countries slowed down due to the drop in global oil prices.

How is the condition of the global economy next year? The following predictions:

> The interest rate the Fed

The Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015. In contrast to the consensus prediction that predicts an increase in interest rates in the second-quarter of 2015, QNB believe global disinflationary pressures and the strengthening of the dollar As will make inflation remained near zero level in 2015.

As a result, the Fed will not raise interest rates as expected given the level of inflation is still below the target of 2 percent. If the Fed does raise interest rates, the impact on the global economy would be really bad.

> Low Volatility and challenge

Volatility seems low in all markets except rates, although low liquidity may lead to some increase in the meantime. Volatility of economic data fell to a new bottom. Unemployment will decrease and the risk of recession in the US is also low.

> The Low Rate of Return

All types of assets will provide a low rate and the effect becomes something important. The rate of return on equity is still more attractive than bonds and the like. Equity multiples will remain above average and may move higher, even in the US.

> Differences Remain Market Lasts

The difference between market growth and monetary policies throughout the developed world will continue into next year. The Fed is likely to slow to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan remained at the previous level.

The value of the US dollar will also be strengthened due to the difference in interest rates between the US and other countries.

> European Recession

The eurozone will enter another deflation and recession. The sharp drop in oil prices will push the euro zone into the era of deflation in 2015 with a number of efforts from the European Central Bank to avoid losses.

This condition will lead to investment and consumption are much weaker and push the currency in the area went into recession.

> Chinese Economic Growth Slowing

China's economic growth will slow to 6-7 percent over the next few years. The best opportunity to express a positive view of the market is likely to come when investors are moving towards such extreme pessimism earlier this year or in the summer of 2013. The decline in house prices and weaker global commodity prices will continue to depress domestic demand and creating a very strong disinflationary pressures.

Chinese government should try to do a further stimulus to the economy, although there will be enough to prevent the country from the economic slowdown. Slowing it also will push inflation to near zero.

> The emergence of the New Order Oil

The price of oil will be lower for some time. Maybe it would be a problem for energy stocks and commodities such as copper and aluminum are used in the oil production process.

> Crisis oil exporter

Some developing countries that export oil would fall on the balance of payments crises. The decline in world oil prices will encourage countries like Russia and Venezuela defaulted on its debt that is due.

These conditions can also be transmitted to other developing countries and encourage international agencies to intervene.

> Commodity prices

Low commodity prices and global economic slowdown will have an impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries.

As of this moment, the decline in oil prices will encourage slowdown ambitious infrastructure investment programs in several major countries.

> Developing Country Markets Improved

Many emerging markets will fix the imbalance, which triggered the oil and commodity prices lower so as to provide deflation and increase market growth.

> Low Inflation

Sluggish labor market, as evidenced by the low wage inflation, would survive. The risk of deflation will force other central banks to act as inflation remains below their target.

> Fixed Mighty Dollar

The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of countries other G10 members still mighty.

Overall, global growth in 2015-2016 will be weakened even further than the previous year. Referring to the IMF World Economic Outlook projections in October, the global economy will grow from 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent in 2015.

Hopefully there is still optimism the global economy in the 2016/7.....'s.

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Political Component Pricing On Government Jokowi

The fall of crude oil prices, which devastated the economies of many countries, is considered a political. In fact, thick with political conspiracy.

Mr. President Jokowi Fuel Prices Down, Prices Staple Stable Whenever ?.

When fuel prices go down and occurs When crude oil prices are low, should would not want all food prices and public transportation costs go down as well.

Now that fuel prices go down, but food prices and the cost of public transportation still averse down. If it's like this, entrepreneurs, owners of public transportation, public transportation drivers, and rogue traders, who want their own wishes that make economic vandals in this country.

Lest the merchants and entrepreneurs accord just as much profit from its activities. Rollicking berkospirasi colonizing nation itself.

Learning from the past, has repeatedly experienced by Indonesia. As fuel prices rise, then the other prices go up. However, is not true if the fuel prices down. Many fictional pretext, when down the fuel no decrease in inflation or economic growth significantly. And so forth reasons that sometimes do not make sense, tend to want to own victory.

Society hopes Jokowi government immediately intervene to control the prices of basic necessities in the market. Because if it continues to rise will affect the economic uncertainty society.

Government Jokowi most responsible in ensuring basic needs will be dragged down the price decline in the price of fuel oil (BBM), which has been done in the near future.

Good news, the policy of fuel coming again of CMEA Djalil. He mentioned that the new price of fuel in Frebruari will be determined based on the Mean of Plats Singapore (MOPS) counted 24 Carre 2014 until 24 January 2015. fall of world oil prices up to US $ 50 per barrel in turn will be followed by a decrease in fuel prices in Indonesia.

"Premium price is lowered as they drop in crude oil prices on the world market, but when the world market price of crude oil rose again it will be adjusted again. That is because the premium price has followed the market mechanism or without subsidies, "he said.

Mr. Minister Sofyan Djalil to the media also said that now is being calculated losses and we will adjust. I'm sure in February 2015 will go down again. The government plans to set the price of premium fuel in two weeks according to world oil prices. "If pertamax set in two weeks. For a while the premium price is set once a month, but may be adjusted in two weeks.

In February the government berenca down again, the lower middle class hopes followed the decline in the price of staples or other goods and services. Because after the fuel price hike back to the discourse of decline in prices was not yet under control needs. And again, if the prices of all been on the market, what it means to the people in the care of a free market without government protection with respect to its existence.

The drop in world oil prices is not just a mere economic game. Behind all that, there is a big scenario played the oil producing countries of the world. Political scenario is referred to as the main motive in the global competition.

The oil game has been going on for the past few months. All countries are now affected, either positively or negatively. So, who is to play the politics of oil since June 2014 and up to now? Political analysts pointed to Saudi Arabia and the United States (US) to be the mastermind behind the drop in world oil prices.

They use oil market depressed for to destroy his enemies, especially Iran and Russia. Petroleum can be a deadly weapon to weaken a country, especially in terms of economics and politics. According to Edward Lucas of The Economist magazine, Arabia and the US to use oil to weaken the powers of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.

Despite US and European economic sanctions related to the Russian annexation of the Crimea and the geopolitical game in eastern Ukraine, Moscow remains resilient and confident. However, the recent decline in world oil prices makes Russia furious and half desperate.

Russia is the country's third largest oil producer in the world. Russia depends on oil prices. "Nearly half of Russia's revenue comes from oil and gas," Lucas said, quoted by the Daily Mail. Oil prices reached the lowest point in the last five years, under USD50 / barrel last week made Russia almost stopped breathing.

The price of oil is too low it can weaken the ruble, Russian currency. It causes panic. The movement of money out of Russia increased sharply. It became the worst days for Russia. The world is to know how oil prices are so low is able to destroy the Soviet Union in 1991 because of the weakening economy.

Now, low oil became a serious threat on the Putin dictatorship trying to revive the Soviet empire. The question is now, whether Putin will fall?

"Political component always determines the price of oil. The moment of crisis is also due to political, "Putin said in an interview with Chinese media, published in the Russian presidential website. Putin has had a special strategy. He no longer sell oil and gas to European markets. Its proximity to Asia Pacific countries make Putin more confident.

In addition, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the decline in world oil prices recently was a political conspiracy.

In a statement, Rouhani not specifically mention the countries he considered conspiring drop in world oil prices.

"The decline in oil prices is not something ordinary and nothing to do with the economy, is not only related to the global recession," said President Hassan Rouhani.

"The main reason is political conspiracy by certain countries.

Previous Iranian government tried to suppress the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce production quotas as an effort to raise the price, but in a recent meeting of OPEC decided not to change the amount of production. 

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AEC: Opportunities, Challenges and Risks for Indonesia

Purpose of establishing the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to improve the economic stability of the ASEAN region, and is expected to overcome the problems in the economy among ASEAN countries.

ASEAN is an economic force consists of 10 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia.

The formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) originated from the agreement ASEAN leaders in the Summit (Summit) in December 1997 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This agreement aims to improve the competitiveness of ASEAN as well as China and India can compete to attract foreign investment. Foreign capital needed to boost employment and welfare of the citizens of ASEAN.

At the next summit which took place in Bali in October 2003, ASEAN leaders declared that the establishment of the AEC in 2015.

There are several consequences of the impact of the MEA, the impact of the free flow of goods to the ASEAN countries, the impact of the free flow of services, the impact of the free flow of investment, the impact of the flow of skilled labor, and the impact of the free flow of capital.

Indonesia ready to face global competition in 2015? We should be prepared to face the competition in 2015. Indonesia and countries in Southeast Asia will form an integrated region known as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). MEA is a form of realization of the ultimate goal of economic integration in Southeast Asia.

There are some things that will be the focus of the AEC in 2015 that can be used as a good momentum for Indonesia.

> Southeast Asia region will be used as a unified market and production base. With the creation of a unified market and production base will make the flow of goods, services, investment, large amounts of capital, and skilled labor be no hindrance from one country to other countries in Southeast Asia.

> MEA will be formed as an economic area with a high level of competition, which requires a policy that includes competition policy, consumer protection, intellectual property rights (IPR), taxation, and E-Commerce. Thus, it can create a climate of fair competition; there is protection in the form of a network system of consumer protection agencies; prevent infringement of copyright; create an efficient transport network, secure, and integrated; eliminating the Double Taxation system, and; increase trade with the online-based electronic media.

> MEA will serve as the region has equitable economic development, with a priority on Small and Medium Enterprises. Competitiveness and dynamism of small and medium enterprises will be improved by facilitating their access to the latest information, market conditions, the development of human resources in terms of capacity building, finance, and technology.

> MEA will be fully integrated to the global economy. With the building of a system to improve the coordination of the member states. In addition, there will be increased participation of countries in Southeast Asia in the global supply network through pengembangkan package of technical assistance to countries less developed ASEAN members. This is done to improve the capabilities and productivity of the industry so that not only increase their participation at the regional scale, but also led the initiative to globally integrated.

Based on the ASEAN Economic Blueprint, MEA becomes very necessary to minimize the gap between ASEAN countries in terms of economic growth by increasing dependence members therein. MEA can develop the concept of meta-national in the food supply chain, and produce a single trading bloc that can handle and negotiate with exporters and importers of non-ASEAN.

For Indonesia, the MEA will be a good opportunity because of barriers to trade will tend to be reduced even be there. This will result in increased exports, which in turn will increase Indonesia's GDP. In this case the risk of competition will appear with the number of imported goods will flow in large quantities to Indonesia, which would threaten the local industry to compete with foreign products of much higher quality. This in turn will increase the trade deficit for the State of Indonesia itself.

On the investment side, this condition can create a climate that supports entry of foreign direct investment (FDI) which can stimulate economic growth through technology development, job creation, human resource development and easier access to the world market. These conditions can result in exploitation risk. Indonesia still has a less binding level of regulation so as to cause large-scale exploitation action against the availability of natural resources by foreign companies into Indonesia as a country with abundant amount of natural resources compared to other countries. There is a possibility also exploitation by foreign companies can damage the ecosystem in Indonesia, while the investment regulations that exist in Indonesia is not yet strong enough to keep the natural conditions including the availability of natural resources contained.

From the aspect of employment, there is a tremendous opportunity for job seekers because it can be a lot of available jobs with the various needs of its diverse membership. In addition, access to go abroad in order to find the job easier even could be without any particular obstacles. MEA also be a good opportunity for entrepreneurs to find the best workers in accordance with the desired criteria. In this case may raise the risk of ketenagakarejaan for Indonesia. In terms of education and productivity of Indonesia is still unable to compete with workers coming from Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand as well as the industrial foundations for Indonesia alone makes Indonesia ranked fourth in ASEAN.

With the presence of MEA this event, Indonesia has the opportunity to take advantage of economies of scale in the country as a base gain. However, Indonesia still has many challenges and risks that would arise if the MEA has been implemented. Therefore, the risk professionals are expected to be more sensitive to fluctuations will occur in order to anticipate emerging risks appropriately. In addition, a slick collaboration between state authorities and businesses need, both physical infrastructure and social (laws and policies) needs to be addressed, as well as the need to improve the capabilities and competitiveness of the workforce and companies in Indonesia. Do not let Indonesia just be a spectator in his own country in 2015. And also more importantly do not let the natural wealth, Indonesian sovereignty compromised by other countries.

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Emergency, Fed Funds Rate Increase In Time Near

Re-mighty dollar. The US currency strengthened against all of its 16 major counterparts after rising at least 3.7% against all major currencies during 2014.

While Morgan Stanley reported the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in less than 8 months compared with the predictions of almost 13 months in October last. And some analysts expect the US central bank the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (Fed Funds Rate) at the end of 2015 or early 2016, in contrast to the consensus that predicted a rise in the second quarter or third quarter of 2014.

The dollar rallied as the manufacturing sector data back reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year while other central banks extend its stimulus policies. Other data that supports pengutan currency is the manufacturing sector PMI data, where data from the ISM manufacturing PMI was at 55.5 last month from 58.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

The increase in the Fed Funds rate can occur at the end of 2015, the Fed Funds rate will rise when inflation is above expectations.

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The Movement of FOREX Trading, System, Purchase, Characteristic.(1)

Many advantages when we choose to trade forex. One of them is the forex trading hours that 'never sleeps'. You could say we all already know that forex trading or forex is open 24 hours a day and 5 days a week. It is a very long period of time. Arguably the open market which continues without any rest or sleep. For traders, this would be great fun. Because they are likely to multiply profits at any time.

However, like most ordinary market, not every moment is always crowded. There are days when the market is crowded with visitors. And there is a time and hour where the empty market although the market remains open. There are certain months where the market visitors actually exceeds the capacity.

So insight into the time and hours in forex trading, it is also very important. You can customize your character by character trading strategies forex trading time in general. In order that the results obtained maximum of every trade you.

Started FOREX Trading

Forex trader you must already know that forex trading if measured by GMT time Indonesia, began on Monday morning until Saturday morning. But maybe you do not know exactly what time it starts trading.

Forex trading world, broadly divided into 5 major markets, namely: Session Sydney (Australia), Session Tokyo (Asia), Session London (Europe), Frankfurt (Germany), Session New York (USA). As we know there is a time difference that is long enough between Australia and America (+16 hours). This is what makes forex trading market never sleeps. When one market closes, another market being open, and so on.

For more details, let's look at the time and the hour when each market open / close:

1. Sydney, Australia

Open: 5:00 pm

Close: 13:00

2. Tokyo, Japan

Open: 6:00 pm

Close: 14:00 pm

3. Frankfurt, Germany

Open: 1:00 pm

Close: 21:00 pm

4. London, England

Open: 2:00 pm

Close: 22:00 pm

5. New York, USA

Open: 19:00 pm

Close: 3:00 pm +1

When viewed from the five major market every day, then an hour most mornings forex trading is Sydney, Australia 05:00, including Monday that the world of forex trading week begins. While the closure is New York, USA at 03:00 early the next day. You can see that forex trading is almost done 24 hours. It is a great opportunity for us traders, because they have a greater opportunity to develop trading capital or take profit.

Furthermore, let's see how it compares to the movement of pips, in each market.

Table difference in price movements (PIPS) forex pairs

Pair Session Tokyo / Asia Session London / Europe Session New York / USA

EUR / USD 76 114 92

GBP / USD 92 127 99

USD / JPY 51 66 59

AUD / USD 77 83 81

NZD / USD 62 72 70

USD / CAD 57 96 96

USD / CHF 67 102 83

EUR / JPY 102 129 107

GBP / JPY 118 151 132

AUD / JPY 98,107,103

EUR / GBP 78 61 47

EUR / CHF 79 109 84

Markets London / Europe

European markets took the largest share is nearly 36% of the total trade. European market is currently the most crowded, where thousands of entrepreneurs world-class snapper forex trading transactions.

Some traits / characteristics of the Tokyo market session / Asia are:

* Due to the London session has time overlapping with other market then this session becomes very crowded. This resulted in very high liquidity and spreads into smaller pips.

* Range of price movement becomes very high (Volatile).

* Trends happened majority will continue until the beginning of the session on the New York market trade.

* During the day volatility will decrease over the noon hour to eat and wait for America to open session.

* Some important news in the Euro zone will also greatly influence price movements.

* At the time of the European session the pair's all become very attractive for trading, because of hectic trade. But who strictest remain on major pairs: EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, and USD / CHF. Some cross pair like EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY also can be glimpsed as it moves quite stable, many traders liked this cross twisted pair.

* Apart from Japan, the countries with the second economic power (Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Seoul) is also active in the transaction. Along with China, Japan is exporting countries that besides the Bank of Japan, China, the commercial businesses (Export / Import) also also participated actively traded.

* At certain times of liquidity could be very small, visible at a very small price movements (do not change within a relatively long). This small price movements that allow formed breakout level of previous trends that occurred in the American market, so there is a phase of consolidation of a pair.

* Most of the movement occurred when the early trade, which at times was a fundamental economic news released or out.

* Market tokyo little lot will also affect the markets that open further, Because traders in Europe and America will see what happened earlier through the Tokyo market.

* Pair that might be interesting for you to trade in the Asian session is, JPY and AUD. Given China also has grown to become the new economic powers, when they released the second important news Pair will also be affected.

Market NewYork / USA

NewYork market accounted for approximately 19% of the total trade. New York is the center of trade and business in America, the city is also nicknamed the "City that never sleep 'means the city that never sleeps.

And as we all know that the USD is the currency of the world, nearly 90% of trade will always involve dollars in it.

Some traits / characteristics of NewYork market session are:

* High liquidity during the morning (early trade), because of overlapping with the European session.

* When the important economic news US release will have enormous power to move prices in pasar.Ingat 90% of the trade involving the dollar.

* After the European markets closed, the liquidity and volatility also tends to decrease (when the US afternoon session).

* On Friday US time, the trade will decline drastically, as traders in Asia and Europe had ceased to move, they are preparing for the holiday weekend.

* Some of the trend reversal may also be common in the period of time after the afternoon session Americans. Some traders do not want to leave the position open to avoid things or news that may occur at the weekend.

* As in the European market, all very interesting couple pair played in the American session, you just have to be extra pay more attention to the time when important news will be and is being released, the dollar will move wildly and even skipping.

Above you have studied the general character of each market, let's move a little to know the characteristics of the pair on certain days. So that you have a portrait of intact and you can determine when, hours, time and day that suits you.

Let's see Table pips according to the price movement. Pair Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Pair Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday (morning)

EUR / USD 69 109 142 136 145 144

GBP / USD 73 149 172 152 169 179

USD / JPY 41 65 82 91 124 98

AUD / USD 58 84 114 99 115 111

NZD / USD 28 81 98 87 100 96

USD / CAD 43 93 112 106 120 125

USD / CHF 55 84 119 107 104 116

EUR / JPY 19 133 178 159 223 192

GBP / JPY 100 169 213 179 270 232

EUR / GBP 35 74 81 79 75 91

EUR / CHF 35 55 55 64 87 76

Seen that Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, is the time when the most crowded and busy market.

When is the best time and hours for forex trading:

* The European session was the most busy and crowded.

* When overlapping provide liquidity and high volatility, this is your chance to immediately achieve the gain / profit in a short time.

* By mid-week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) where the price movement pips are at the highest value.

When is the time and hours that are not suitable for forex trading:.............................next

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The Movement of Forex Trading, System, Purchase, Characteristic (2)

.....When is the best time and hours for forex trading:

* The European session was the most busy and crowded.

* When overlapping provide liquidity and high volatility, this is your chance to immediately achieve the gain / profit in a short time.

* By mid-week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) where the price movement pips are at the highest value.

When is the time and hours that are not suitable for forex trading:

Most movement occurs when the early trade, which fundamentally new economic news released.

Tokyo market will also have some impact to open markets further, Because traders in Europe and America will see what happens before through the Tokyo market.

At certain times of liquidity could be very small, visible at a very small price movements.

The currency pair you are trading that may be on the Asian session is, JPY and AUD.

London's Calling

The European market is forex trading sessions of the most crowded, where thousands of world-class entrepreneurs forex trading transactions. Here are the characteristics of the session in the London market, namely:

Range of price movement becomes very high (Volatile).

Some important news in the Euro zone will also greatly influence price movements.

Since the London session has time overlapping with other markets, the forex trading session becomes very crowded. This resulted in very high liquidity and spreads into smaller pips.

During the day volatility will decline as lunch break and wait for the American session open.

The trend will continue until the majority of the early session on the New York market trade.

Forex trading sessions on European time makes all very interesting pair to be traded. As in the major pairs: EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, and USD / CHF. Some cross pair like EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY also can be glimpsed as it moves quite stable, many traders liked this cross twisted pair.

New York, New York

New York is the center of trade and business in America, the city is also nicknamed the "City that never sleep 'means the city that never sleeps. Since the USD is the currency of the world, and nearly 90% of trade will always involve dollars in it. The following characteristics of the American market:

After European markets closed, the liquidity and volatility also tends to decrease. Especially during the afternoon session of the United States.

Economic news can move the market price, considering all trades involve the dollar.

High liquidity may occur at the beginning of trading in the morning, because of overlapping with the European session.

On Friday US time, the trade will decline drastically, as traders in Asia and Europe had stopped moving, and get ready for the holiday weekend.

Some of the trend reversal may also be common in the period of time after the afternoon session Americans. Some traders do not want to leave the position open to avoid things or news that may occur at the weekend.

In forex trading session at United, all twisted pair is also very interesting to play. You just need extra attention to the important news that will come out, because the dollar can move wildly.

You can search for more profit by utilizing forex trading session European time. Because the European session is the most busy and crowded. Similarly, when there is overlap, you can make a profit in a short time.

Asian markets are less suitable for aggressive traders, due to the volatility and low liquidity. And do not forget to always pay attention to the news or other important events. Even as the World Cup soccer event could make the market be quiet, because the attention of traders switch.

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Gripping, Dollar Back ahold Market

Today in the absence of economic data from the European Union and the market is preparing to welcome the new year 2015 tomorrow Thursday, the Dollar is likely to be continued to dominate the market although in thin trading as US unemployment claims data is reported later that evening.

In the previous trading day, the EUR / USD jumped nearly 60 points after forming yearly lows. This surge appears to only be temporary due to profit-taking ahead of the end of the year. As is known, investors have been selling euros and buy dollars since last June.

While the European region struck back with speculation "Grexit" Greek production as well as the blue zone's debt crisis, after Greece's political turmoil. Greek Parliament again failed to elect the next president of Greece, triggering early elections on 25 January 2015. However, recent surveys show the opposition party Syriza who will win the election, these conditions lead to the Yen, Swiss Francs, Gold and Silver back pursued by investors.

Dollar Will Stronger 2015

Daily Telegraph carried a report that the US dollar looks will continue to strengthen in 2015 and expect the value equation (parity) for the first time after more than 10 years. Economic analyst at Citibank said the combination of tighter monetary policy in the United States and more elastic monetary policy in Europe, causing the Euro would be almost worth the dollar.

Parity means, the value of EUR per USD to 1.0000 and Citibank expects the value of EUR against the USD will reach 1.1000 in September 2015 and under the "parity", 0.9900, for the first time since December 2002 to 2016.

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Storm Russian Economic Crisis Transmission to Asia

Policy makers in Asia face the Russian disaster from a stronger position than when the volatile emerging markets around the world in 1997-98. With the current account deficit shrinks, cheap oil and higher reserve in their favor, the largest Southeast Asian and South Asian countries can see that the situation is similar to 2002, when the disaster in Argentina and Turkey failed to trigger a crisis in the region.

While the market has not been affected - Indonesia and India buy their currencies this week after they glide - a shift in policy and domestic demand can help. With a swelling middle class clamoring for a better home, transportation and entertainment, companies in this region have a homegrown source of growth, and local capital markets more to turn for financing.

Countries including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have started the era of structural reforms since the Asian financial crisis, taking steps to reduce government spending and deficits, accumulate reserves, raising interest rates and improve governance. That helped the region withstand the impact of the crisis Turkey in 2001 and Argentine standards, then the largest in the world, in 2002.

Currency reserves, external liabilities of developing countries in Asia accounted for 16 percent of gross domestic product last year, compared with about 34 percent in 1998, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

"Every Asian central banks have moved to international standards in reporting reserves, and policy makers have also reduced the accumulation of foreign debt and the rules of the currency mismatch between the company tightened," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong . Most economies have a stronger policy credibility, with the new government in India and Indonesia are also more likely to deliver reform, he said.

Crude oil slump to five-year lows has also given India, Malaysia and Indonesia room to unload energy subsidies this year because they are taking steps to strengthen the position of the current account.

Fuel Subsidy

With a stable debt ratio, an increase in demand, lower oil prices and the Federal Reserve's rate of price increases, "Asia appears more than able to ride out any attack weak investor sentiment that may arise in the next few months," David Carbon, managing director of DBS Group Holdings Ltd. for economic and currency research, said in a report today.

President of Indonesia Joko Widodo has cut fuel subsidies and is considering an overhaul of the price system for decades. Lower demand for fuel imports will help to reduce the trade and current account deficits and current account deficits are smaller will reduce investors' concerns about the funding gap, said Tamara Henderson, an economist at Bloomberg LP in Singapore.

In India, a new central bank governor and the new government has improved the economic position. The country is counted among the "Fragile Five" along with South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil in the face of current account deficits and currency plunged last year after the Fed signaled the bond purchase program will end.

Adequate ammunition

Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist of the IMF who took the helm of the central bank in September 2013, offered for dollar swap proposed by the bank to prop up the exchange rate, pushing the benchmark rate to 8 percent, and adopting policies to slow consumer inflation -Price 6 percent in January 2016 .

Narendra Modi's election as prime minister in May, and plans to overhaul the economy and reduce the budget deficit should also help attract more foreign capital, said Shubhada Rao, economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai.

"India, for six to 12 months, has built a sufficient level of ammunition to be able to withstand the financial market turmoil," he said. While there will be a phase of volatility, "India has done well in strengthening the domestic fundamentals on a relative scale and increase foreign exchange reserves to be able to intervene and when the situation warrants it."

Thailand low government debt, a strong external balance sheet and liquidity strength, political uncertainty continues, Standard and Poor's said yesterday. A military coup in May led to the formation of the government-run there, while in Indonesia, thousands of people took to the streets to protest against rising fuel prices.

Relatively low foreign exchange holdings in Indonesia increased its fragility: back up just enough to cover 6.6 months of imports, central bank figures show that less than 10.7 months to 8.4 months in the Philippines and Malaysia. Indonesian bond risk has increased by 34 percent in the last two weeks and foreign funds have attracted 18.2 trillion rupiah ($ 1.4 billion) of local currency government bonds this month, heading out the most since June 2013.

"Risk-off sentiment will be temporary and ultimately investors will seek higher yields," said Dian Ayu YUSTINA, Jakarta-based economist at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia. "Unless Russia collapsed, in terms of the impact of contagion would be great."

Policy makers say they are ready to act: Bank Indonesia has said "bitter" medicine of rate increases still need to be taken, while Governor Amando Tetangco Philippines said "all the tools that open" there should be signs of extreme market volatility or potential contagion.

Developing Asia will grow 6.2 percent next year from 6.1 percent forecast in 2014, the Asian Development Bank said this week. Lower oil prices could mean upside surprise in 2015, because most of the region's economies are oil importers, he said.

"Drawing a parallel between the late 1990s and is now a little bit wrong," HSBC said Neumann. "Reserves are higher, more fiscal space, and external payments position is much stronger should be enough to see the area through this financial storm."

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The increase in the Fed's Interest 2018

JAKARTA. Bank Indonesia (BI) recognizes the position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves were US $ 112.0 miiar sebesaf enough to cope with the planned increase in US interest rates the Fed next year. BI rate the Fed pressure adjustment by the market has been going on since last year.

Chief Economist BII Juniman argues, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves position is still sufficient to deal with the pressure when an increase in US interest rates next year. The reason, according Juniman, rising interest rates next year is still relatively small.

He estimates that domestic interest rates will rise uncle sam 100 bps to 1.25%. With a 100 bps increase in the capital outflow, nor the outflows of funds will not be significant. Investors will only be out for a while and went back to Indonesia as the adjustment process.

Juniman, a large outflow of new opportunities occur in 2018. "It is estimated that US interest rates in 2018 will reach 5%. This will happen turbulence in global financial markets, especially developing countries," he explained.

Therefore, during the period up to 2018, Indonesia had to prepare. Fix the fundamentals that investors want to invest long term in Indonesia. In effect, the Indonesian foreign exchange reserves thickened and ready to face the long-term pressure the Fed.

On the other hand, an economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA) David Sumual argues, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves position today than short-term debt still needs further improvement. David Counts, cadev position by the end of October of US $ 112.0 billion, just enough to pay two times the short-term debt.

Neighboring countries capacity four times to six times the short-term debt. Therefore, David saw the position of Indonesia's foreign reserves should ditingkatka again. "At least up to three times. It's important to face turmoil next year," he explained.

The volatility is meant by David is a planned increase in US interest rates. To increase foreign exchange reserves, the central bank could expand the domestic financial instruments to deepen the market. Step extend the tenor of forex swap auction (fx swaps) foreign exchange (forex) that has been done BI is a positive thing. However, the instrument needs to be expanded further deepening of the market.

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Guessing FOREX Transactions Up / Down

Forex Trading business is a new thing in Indonesia, but now that many are attracted to the business because Forex Trading Online has the advantage that is not owned by another business, namely:

You are the Boss for yourself, nothing tops that must be obeyed, not afraid to be fired, no one you set.

Not limited places and regions, provided there is a PC or laptop connected to the internet then you can do this trading activity

Relatively small capital, depending on his broker, there are Internet even give Capital $ 5 real money and $ 10,000 virtual money as a training tool for example in Marketiva.

For Beginners at marketiva recommend learning first, because in addition Without Capital also use the Trading Platform that is easy to understand and also had a chat facility to support or to fellow traders. and pulled again there is a special room Indonesian (this is why tens of thousands of members today from Indonesia)

Potential Advantages Without Borders, Daily Trader Magazine edition april / May 2007 page 90 in an article titled "The Trader Monthly 100" explores in particular the 100 best traders in the world with revenues estimated at over 50 million US dollars per year. One of them mentioned John Arnold (33 years) from the city of Houston in the estimate an income of 1.5 s / d 2 billion US DOLLARS per year

Flexible time, An Independent Trader can do this business activities whenever he wants, there is no limit of time (remember !!! as we Trader is Boss)

Nearly Everyone Can do, Origin is of age (usually at least 18 or 21 years), not illiterate, a finger can be used to punch the keys you are able to start.

Other rare Forex secret called that only about 3% of Forex traders are correct - completely successful in this business (see also the article level a trader here), because most are not able to face the emotional (emotional mastery), especially the nature of fear and greed that many master in this trading activity, many are lying because Forex trading at underestimate because only guess two possibilities Up or Down (likened to gambling), but it is not that simple.

Forex Trading Free!

Since the Internet more easily accessible then learn forex online more and more known in Indonesia, perhaps most online businesses Indonesian players know forex broker forex business especially marketiva. Therefore I personally call it a play forex Indonesia.

The advantages of this forex broker in addition to providing initial capital FREE (though not much) at least it could be a good place to learn forex because prektek directly. Free capital provided will be thawed if lucky, if Loss ??? , No Problem .... Because Free!

In addition, excess trading platform used to have Channel Chat directly to support 24 Hours and many Channel (room) by countries including Indonesia, so he could chat Forex Trading Online fellow traders from Indonesia and overseas, but from personal experience; chat room Indonesia mostly becandanya, if you want to seriously get into the market chat room.

Forex trading takes place 24 hours for 5 days a week, roughly in starting at 4 am Monday s / d 4 am Saturday.

Learning forex brokers suggest marketiva, because in addition to the Capital Real Money Internet, we can also practice with virtual money that is given as many as 10,000 US Dollars, if discharged could ask for more again, have advanced ???? The new play Real Money.

There is also a direct play Real Money, because according to use fake money emotional pressure difference, which is why many also if you play virtual money profit use, disposable Real Money Loss .... Why ???? Pressure different emotions!

Foreign Exchange System

In every country there is a system of foreign exchange rates are determined by the policy adopted by the government of each country.

According to Floyd A. Beam: "... Consider the exchange rate behavior under three different kinds of exchange systems: floating, fixed, and controlled." (Floyd A. Beam 2003: 390-391)

Above opinion states that there are three systems of foreign exchange rates used by the state, namely:

a. Free exchange rate system, in this system there is no government intervention to stabilize the exchange rate. The exchange rate is determined by supply and demand for foreign exchange.

b. Fixed exchange rate system, in this system the government or the central bank of the country concerned to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling foreign currency if the value deviates from the specified standard.

c. Exchange rate system controlled / uncontrolled, in this system the government or the central bank of the country concerned has the exclusive power to determine the allocation of the use of foreign exchange available. Citizens are not free to intervene in foreign exchange transactions. Capital inflows and exports of goods led to the availability of foreign exchange.

Transactions in Foreign Currencies. ( FOREX )

According to IFRSs (1999: 10.2), a transaction in foreign currency is: "A transaction that is denominated or requires settlement in a foreign currency."

Meanwhile, according to Frederick, foreign currency transactions (foreign currency transactions), namely: "Whose Transactions terms are stated in a currency other than the entity's functional currency." (Frederick 2002: 210)

Thus, transactions in foreign currency is a transaction that occurs in different currencies, and requires the completion also in different currencies. Financial Accounting Standards classify transactions that are included in the foreign currency transactions.

According to the Financial Accounting Standards: "foreign currency transactions, including transactions arising when an entity:

a. Buy or sell goods or services whose price is denominated in a foreign currency.

b. Borrowing (debt) or loan (debt) funds are denominated in a foreign currency.

c. Becomes a party to an agreement in foreign currencies that have not been implemented, or

d. Acquire or remove assets, cause or settle liabilities, denominated in a foreign currency. "(Financial Accounting Standards 1999: 10.2)

Componen Price Movement ( FOREX )

It is crucial for a trader is to understand the price movement. Of course, from this understanding, then will conclude on what position to take, how much TP and how SL. For Fundamentalist traders, understand price movements can be done by monitoring news and initial predictions about the market reaction to the news.

As for traders technicalist, understanding price action course refers more to the historical data. Course in accordance with the basic belief that everything happens based on past events and that history always repeats itself, as well as in price movements. For a technicalist, in order to understand these price movements, it is necessary to know the components of the price movement as follows:

Trend - a tendency to move in one direction

Volatility - the amount of periodic fluctuations

Momentum - the rate of acceleration and deceleration

Cycle - a tendency to move in a certain cyclical pattern repeated tendency

Market Strength - the number of transactions to support these movements

Support and Resistance - a tendency to go up or down to a certain level and then vice versa, repeatedly

An understanding of these things is a must to be able to take the right decisions in her trading. No need to worry about where to obtain the data and how to process the data we need. That said, we are really lucky to exist in an era in which all sorts of information from many sources can be processed and presented in real-time so that we can trade with ease plus fun.

We can use the trading platform and software support for the problem of data and processing this data. You can just click to display the indicator you want, which basically provides information about the components of price movements over. No need to worry about how to make these indicators (except like you who really want to make their own custom indicator).

The most important thing is how you understand what is shown by the indicator. There are many indicators that you can use to read the above components. For example, to read the trends, you can use a parabolic SAR, or it could be a family moving average. To voltilitas and momentum, you can use the MACD, RSI and the like. For cycle-resistant and support you can use Fibonacci or pivot. And to the strength of the market, you can see directly in the candlestick.

So, your task is simply to choose and understand aka "communicate" with the indicator, then take the right decision based on your understanding of the data and these indicators. By using a strong base in decision-making, whatever the results we obtained, we can take the benefits. Well, hopefully if profit. Even if the loss, from there we can take that lesson the next time do not happen again making the same mistake.

TUTORIAL FOREX .VALAS

Forex tutorial is designed for beginners following order within a few minutes can immediately practice forex trading, Forex Trading Learning recommended first in the broker that has tens of thousands of members of Indonesia.

Highly recommended Learn Forex sites that provide Internet capital (real money and Virtual Money), although not enough to buy a car quite make learning

follow the easy steps below:

Please Register Free Forex Account first.

This process is only less than 5 minutes. After registering you will be finished Direct Online Forex Trading. You also will get a prize of free capital is cash of $ 5 (real money) for free, as well as virtual currency / mock for trading simulation for $ 10,000.

IMPORTANT!, Everyone is justified only create ONE account only, because if you make more than one account, then you will be blocked. Therefore you must enter data in truth corresponding ID card or Driving License you.

How to Charge a free forex account Registration Form:

For fields / sections with an asterisk (*) are required to fill in, the others may be empty.

Username (*): Use the username / nickname, or nickname / name of a good brief and polite, because you'll use to chat with fellow traders later. Examples of good and correct username: tradervalas, belajarvalas, Belajarforex, etc.

Password (*): Your password, at least 8 characters combination of letters and numbers. Examples of the correct password: kayamendadak2014, etc.

First Name (*): Your first name.

Middle Initial: Letters Home on Your Middle Name (1 character), empty it (if you do not have a middle name) or enter your middle name behind First Name (only if you have a middle name).

Last Name (*): Your last name, if your name consists of only one syllable, enter your name mentioned in the First Name and Last Name. Example: if your name is just one syllable, namely: Argomaka enter First Name: Argo, Last Name: Argo.

Job Title: May vacated only if the name of your ID card or driver's license no title or degree to fill this column (if there is a degree in ID card or driver's license).

Organization: May left blank, or filled with the name of the campus, office, your shop, etc.

Street Address (*): Your Address, write according to the address on your ID card or driver's license. The address entered must match ID / driver's license even if you do not stay there this time.

Additional Address: Empty or you can fill in your address other than that listed in the ID card or driver's license.

City (*): Your City accordance with ID / ID card or driving license.

Zip / Postal Code (*): Zip Code

State / Province (*): for example, Central Java Province, Jakarta.

Country / Region (*): State, Select Indonesia.

Phone (*): Phone number, must be filled. May be filled with a mobile phone number, work phone, or a phone family / friends.

Fax: May left blank.

Mobile: May Vacated or content with your mobile phone number.

E-mail (*): Your e-mail address. Email should still active, in the sense can send and receive emails with either. If in doubt you should just create a new email, which is free also bolehseperti gmail.com or mail.yahoo.com.

Website: May emptied or the contents of the Website / Blog.

Click the Continue button - >>

User Template (*): Select Standard.

Coupon: Empty if there is no person who referred you (not that discount coupons, but only to indicate that you are a member of the person who invited you)

Recovery Question (*): The question to get your password back if one day you forget. Choose the most suitable to your situation, for example, you have a pet dog with guxguk name, then you can select the question: What is your pet's name? (What is your pet's name?)

Recovery Answer (*): The answer to the above question Recovery. In this example then your answer is simanismanja.

Click the Next button =>

Put a tick / check (v) In the Options:

I have read, understood, and agree with the Service Agreement under the which Marketiva Corporation Provides services and products it. Also I have read and understood the Risk Disclosure Statement and I am willing and Able to assume Reviews such risks.

Then click FINISH. You have completed the registration process.

B. To Do Trading,..

After you click to select the "save" and select a folder to save the file on your Desktop for example. (Do not use a software / program downloads or accelerator)

C. IMPORTANT! We recommend that you immediately Doing Identification Account / Endorsement Immediately After Up, namely By Sending Scan ID card or driver's license.

This process does not have to be done immediately and can be followed, BUT if you are using a computer in an Internet cafe (internet cafes); office; library, computer access other public place, or a ride in a friend's computer, then BEFORE LOGIN to the trading software, MUST upload ID card or Driving License  that is not subject to suspension or even deletion of your account. Unless the computer where you register never use another trader who log into the software, it can be done following identification.

When exposed to suspend your account then do not create a new account again because it's useless, the new account will be deleted or suspended. The only way to activate the account is suspended by uploading your documents.

However if you are serious Learn Forex we advise you as soon as possible after the identification register to receive two advantages, namely:

Can withdraw the funds.

Free from the risk of suspend / block when trading on the computer I've ever used another user. If you access the software from public computers such as Internet cafe then you never know that your computer has been used by other traders.

For the identification process, which takes is

Picture Identification: Form scanned photo ID issued by the government, such as ID cards, driver's license, Passport. Scan to JPEG format color or greyscale minimum of the original document (not a scan of the copies!). The maximum file size of 100 Kbytes per share.

Identification confirming the customer's address: Form of scanned documents that include your address, such as telephone bills, electricity, or water. NB: If you do not have documents point No. 2, you may only use the scan ID cards or SIM only. How: For those of you who have a new ID card (behind no image maps), scan the page and enter your ID card photographed in both the upload form (picture identification and the customer's address). For owners of the old identity card (Front photograph, rear Data), then scan the front page and fill in the form and picture identification, and backyard at the customer's address. Then upload, Done.

D. To start trading, please install the trading software that you downloaded earlier, log in, then you can start trading forex.

You must enter your Personal Data with truth, because users who enter false data or random origin it will most likely be deleted, if the same open two accounts will be required to provide additional validity evidence.

to Learn Forex Trading Online (when in Indonesian) for example: How to Trade Forex, Forex Trading best time, Tips Tricks Playing Forex can be learned for free on this website: Forex Business

Forex Trading Tutorial Hopefully this be the beginning of freedom fiansial.

Of Which The Broker Forex Gain

Surely every broker has different rules that, in charging for their services. There is something of an interesting fee / commission each lot there that just from the difference / spread between the buy / sell. And generally that is now used broker is from the spread. Usually about 2-3 pips for major currencies (US, Euro, Yen, Pound, or who crowded traded), and can be up to 5 pips for secondary currency. From about 3 Pips is certainly not all merupkan net profit brokers, no operating costs, the cost of the fee to the broker who is greater, the cost of commissions to agents, etc.

 

What is a Forex Broker

Forex broker is a party, may be a company, institution, agency, or individual which stands to reconcile between the seller and the buyer. Then the product whether that transaction? Surely the form of foreign exchange forex = = currency of the country.

In the normal course of trade between countries, an exchange of currency. And this exchange has been going on since the days when the economic relations between countries began to bond with each other. So it might be argued that this forex broker also there has been since time immemorial. Seeing the development of inter-connection between the state economy that increasingly massive, and saw the forex exchange market, forex brokers certainly more present in the world.

Why Do Need Broker

In fact forex trading activity is dominated by major central banks around the world. With most of the portion of the major currencies such as the US, Euro, Yen and Pound. Well in order to carry out transactions with banks / institutions such large, for us traders (small scale) are not allowed. In addition we have no relation, also the existence of a minimum limit of transactions.

Well, this is where forex brokers take the role, retail forex broker will arrange for any individual trader can allow it to join the forex trading. So the broker will forward the request of traders to the broker who is greater, and so on so will every trader requests can be accommodated in the forex market a big and massive.

Online Forex Broker

Ancient pre-Internet traders using the old communication model for each transaction to the broker. That is by phone, but now this has been advanced age (no internet) traders can directly be real time in forex trading. With advanced application specific (metatrader) trader can do monitor the price, order execution is much faster and in real time. In addition, traders are also equipped with a variety of tools for analysis, access news, chat / discussion, etc.

With the support that the faster internet connection, it is practically almost all brokers in the world should facilitate online trading so as not to be left tradernya and not outdated.

With this online forex trading, it is very much easy for traders. In addition can be done anywhere, also can be done whenever a trader wants.

Regulation, and the legality of Forex Brokers

The problem that then arises is how to choose a forex broker online forex broker diatara hundreds of them. When it was still a bit certainly would not want us to choose a broker that there are, but not right now. Surely these brokers is definitely some good and some bad. There are professionals who work there who take funds from their own clients. This case we need to understand that we are not wrong in choosing a broker. So we need to be careful and do not easily tempted by the bonuses / promotions that are offered by many online forex brokers on the internet.

One who can help us see the broker is to find out info about regulation / regulator which is followed by the broker. Regulated broker that means he must follow the principles and rules that exist in the regulator which he attended.

These regulators generally is the agency / institution under financial official of the state government. The better the regulator is the rule that is followed by the broker will be intense. Brokers can not operate with standard inconsequential, or operating permit can be revoked and sanctioned by regulators.

Surely we should also know that good regulators in countries where? include: NFA (USA), FSA (UK), FSC (Mauritius), and many more.

Various Type Broker

Generally traders do not care, and it is impossible to know how to actually manage each transaction broker who entered from the client. We can only them alone. Brokers who do not clearly regulated and offer tantalizing spread and bonuses tend to get into the type of city where every transaction will be fought solely by the broker. Well with brokers like this there is a danger, because there is a possibility that the broker lost, and eventually went bankrupt. We recommend that you select the type of STP broker / Non Dealing, where each transaction will be forwarded to the bank or broker who is greater.

Forex Manipulation, 5 Banks Fined

LONDON / ZURICH. Again, the bank proved to manipulate transaction snapper. Global bank credibility back tarnished after regulators prove the practice of manipulation of money market transactions (forex). There are five jumbo entangled bank forex transactions manipulation case. They are UBS, HSBC, Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and JP Morgan. Details, UBS, HSBC, and Citigroup guilty for failing to prevent the practice of manipulation of forex transactions.

Meanwhile, RBS and JP Morganbersalah due to fraudulent practices in determining the price of the reference (benchmark) currency. Thus, the regulator requires the five banks that pay a fine of US $ 3.4 billion. These fines shall be paid billions of dollars to the Monetary Authority of British banks (FCA), Commodity Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Regulator Switzerland (FINMA). This penalty verdict is the result of a joint investigation authorities over the last year.

"This marks a fine record that the bank should be responsible to ensure no manipulation of transactions," said CEO of FCA, Martin Wheatley, Wednesday (12/11). Of the five banks, UBS suffered the most substantial fines. UBS had to pay US $ 661 million to the FCA and the CFTC. Separately, FINMA requires UBS to pay CHF 134 million for manipulating find UBS trader of precious metals transactions.

Has not ended

Bank credibility is at stake. Because the regulator continues to seek new evidence. Barclays is rumored to be the next target. British banks still are still under investigation FCA. "The fine is not the end of the story," said Wheatley. Just so you know, a fine of US $ 3.4 billion, regulators imposed on the investigation on forex transactions from 1 January 2008 until October 15, 2013.

CFTC said traders manipulation performed in the period 2009 to tahun2012. The findings of the regulators, traders manipulating transactions via the chat room. Trader using a special code to inform the client name. A number of chat rooms that use them, "the players", "the three musketeers" and "one team, one dream".

After penalties, regulators reviewing the rules in the forex market. As an illustration, the world forex market transactions reached US $ 5.3 trillion per day. As many as 40% of the total transactions in the market of London. Practice manipulation was never lonely. March 2014, five banks are also accused of manipulating the price of gold in London.