Restlessness Global Economy in 2015 untl 2016...2017...?

Illustration of global economic growth showed signs of slowing with significant downside risks. Some of the risk of global economic growth will even continue throughout 2016.

Recovery occurs Massive

The United States will be a leader in the recovery of the world economy. While economic growth in emerging markets will be driven by oil and commodity prices are low.

US economic recovery also occurs very quickly exceeded analysts' expectations throughout 2014. Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, but the US managed to rise rapidly in the next two quarters.

While economic growth in developing countries slowed down due to the drop in global oil prices.

How is the condition of the global economy next year? The following predictions:

> The interest rate the Fed

The Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015. In contrast to the consensus prediction that predicts an increase in interest rates in the second-quarter of 2015, QNB believe global disinflationary pressures and the strengthening of the dollar As will make inflation remained near zero level in 2015.

As a result, the Fed will not raise interest rates as expected given the level of inflation is still below the target of 2 percent. If the Fed does raise interest rates, the impact on the global economy would be really bad.

> Low Volatility and challenge

Volatility seems low in all markets except rates, although low liquidity may lead to some increase in the meantime. Volatility of economic data fell to a new bottom. Unemployment will decrease and the risk of recession in the US is also low.

> The Low Rate of Return

All types of assets will provide a low rate and the effect becomes something important. The rate of return on equity is still more attractive than bonds and the like. Equity multiples will remain above average and may move higher, even in the US.

> Differences Remain Market Lasts

The difference between market growth and monetary policies throughout the developed world will continue into next year. The Fed is likely to slow to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan remained at the previous level.

The value of the US dollar will also be strengthened due to the difference in interest rates between the US and other countries.

> European Recession

The eurozone will enter another deflation and recession. The sharp drop in oil prices will push the euro zone into the era of deflation in 2015 with a number of efforts from the European Central Bank to avoid losses.

This condition will lead to investment and consumption are much weaker and push the currency in the area went into recession.

> Chinese Economic Growth Slowing

China's economic growth will slow to 6-7 percent over the next few years. The best opportunity to express a positive view of the market is likely to come when investors are moving towards such extreme pessimism earlier this year or in the summer of 2013. The decline in house prices and weaker global commodity prices will continue to depress domestic demand and creating a very strong disinflationary pressures.

Chinese government should try to do a further stimulus to the economy, although there will be enough to prevent the country from the economic slowdown. Slowing it also will push inflation to near zero.

> The emergence of the New Order Oil

The price of oil will be lower for some time. Maybe it would be a problem for energy stocks and commodities such as copper and aluminum are used in the oil production process.

> Crisis oil exporter

Some developing countries that export oil would fall on the balance of payments crises. The decline in world oil prices will encourage countries like Russia and Venezuela defaulted on its debt that is due.

These conditions can also be transmitted to other developing countries and encourage international agencies to intervene.

> Commodity prices

Low commodity prices and global economic slowdown will have an impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries.

As of this moment, the decline in oil prices will encourage slowdown ambitious infrastructure investment programs in several major countries.

> Developing Country Markets Improved

Many emerging markets will fix the imbalance, which triggered the oil and commodity prices lower so as to provide deflation and increase market growth.

> Low Inflation

Sluggish labor market, as evidenced by the low wage inflation, would survive. The risk of deflation will force other central banks to act as inflation remains below their target.

> Fixed Mighty Dollar

The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of countries other G10 members still mighty.

Overall, global growth in 2015-2016 will be weakened even further than the previous year. Referring to the IMF World Economic Outlook projections in October, the global economy will grow from 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent in 2015.

Hopefully there is still optimism the global economy in the 2016/7.....'s.

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AEC: Opportunities, Challenges and Risks for Indonesia

Purpose of establishing the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to improve the economic stability of the ASEAN region, and is expected to overcome the problems in the economy among ASEAN countries.

ASEAN is an economic force consists of 10 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia.

The formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) originated from the agreement ASEAN leaders in the Summit (Summit) in December 1997 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This agreement aims to improve the competitiveness of ASEAN as well as China and India can compete to attract foreign investment. Foreign capital needed to boost employment and welfare of the citizens of ASEAN.

At the next summit which took place in Bali in October 2003, ASEAN leaders declared that the establishment of the AEC in 2015.

There are several consequences of the impact of the MEA, the impact of the free flow of goods to the ASEAN countries, the impact of the free flow of services, the impact of the free flow of investment, the impact of the flow of skilled labor, and the impact of the free flow of capital.

Indonesia ready to face global competition in 2015? We should be prepared to face the competition in 2015. Indonesia and countries in Southeast Asia will form an integrated region known as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). MEA is a form of realization of the ultimate goal of economic integration in Southeast Asia.

There are some things that will be the focus of the AEC in 2015 that can be used as a good momentum for Indonesia.

> Southeast Asia region will be used as a unified market and production base. With the creation of a unified market and production base will make the flow of goods, services, investment, large amounts of capital, and skilled labor be no hindrance from one country to other countries in Southeast Asia.

> MEA will be formed as an economic area with a high level of competition, which requires a policy that includes competition policy, consumer protection, intellectual property rights (IPR), taxation, and E-Commerce. Thus, it can create a climate of fair competition; there is protection in the form of a network system of consumer protection agencies; prevent infringement of copyright; create an efficient transport network, secure, and integrated; eliminating the Double Taxation system, and; increase trade with the online-based electronic media.

> MEA will serve as the region has equitable economic development, with a priority on Small and Medium Enterprises. Competitiveness and dynamism of small and medium enterprises will be improved by facilitating their access to the latest information, market conditions, the development of human resources in terms of capacity building, finance, and technology.

> MEA will be fully integrated to the global economy. With the building of a system to improve the coordination of the member states. In addition, there will be increased participation of countries in Southeast Asia in the global supply network through pengembangkan package of technical assistance to countries less developed ASEAN members. This is done to improve the capabilities and productivity of the industry so that not only increase their participation at the regional scale, but also led the initiative to globally integrated.

Based on the ASEAN Economic Blueprint, MEA becomes very necessary to minimize the gap between ASEAN countries in terms of economic growth by increasing dependence members therein. MEA can develop the concept of meta-national in the food supply chain, and produce a single trading bloc that can handle and negotiate with exporters and importers of non-ASEAN.

For Indonesia, the MEA will be a good opportunity because of barriers to trade will tend to be reduced even be there. This will result in increased exports, which in turn will increase Indonesia's GDP. In this case the risk of competition will appear with the number of imported goods will flow in large quantities to Indonesia, which would threaten the local industry to compete with foreign products of much higher quality. This in turn will increase the trade deficit for the State of Indonesia itself.

On the investment side, this condition can create a climate that supports entry of foreign direct investment (FDI) which can stimulate economic growth through technology development, job creation, human resource development and easier access to the world market. These conditions can result in exploitation risk. Indonesia still has a less binding level of regulation so as to cause large-scale exploitation action against the availability of natural resources by foreign companies into Indonesia as a country with abundant amount of natural resources compared to other countries. There is a possibility also exploitation by foreign companies can damage the ecosystem in Indonesia, while the investment regulations that exist in Indonesia is not yet strong enough to keep the natural conditions including the availability of natural resources contained.

From the aspect of employment, there is a tremendous opportunity for job seekers because it can be a lot of available jobs with the various needs of its diverse membership. In addition, access to go abroad in order to find the job easier even could be without any particular obstacles. MEA also be a good opportunity for entrepreneurs to find the best workers in accordance with the desired criteria. In this case may raise the risk of ketenagakarejaan for Indonesia. In terms of education and productivity of Indonesia is still unable to compete with workers coming from Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand as well as the industrial foundations for Indonesia alone makes Indonesia ranked fourth in ASEAN.

With the presence of MEA this event, Indonesia has the opportunity to take advantage of economies of scale in the country as a base gain. However, Indonesia still has many challenges and risks that would arise if the MEA has been implemented. Therefore, the risk professionals are expected to be more sensitive to fluctuations will occur in order to anticipate emerging risks appropriately. In addition, a slick collaboration between state authorities and businesses need, both physical infrastructure and social (laws and policies) needs to be addressed, as well as the need to improve the capabilities and competitiveness of the workforce and companies in Indonesia. Do not let Indonesia just be a spectator in his own country in 2015. And also more importantly do not let the natural wealth, Indonesian sovereignty compromised by other countries.

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