Restlessness Global Economy in 2015 untl 2016...2017...?

Illustration of global economic growth showed signs of slowing with significant downside risks. Some of the risk of global economic growth will even continue throughout 2016.

Recovery occurs Massive

The United States will be a leader in the recovery of the world economy. While economic growth in emerging markets will be driven by oil and commodity prices are low.

US economic recovery also occurs very quickly exceeded analysts' expectations throughout 2014. Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, but the US managed to rise rapidly in the next two quarters.

While economic growth in developing countries slowed down due to the drop in global oil prices.

How is the condition of the global economy next year? The following predictions:

> The interest rate the Fed

The Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015. In contrast to the consensus prediction that predicts an increase in interest rates in the second-quarter of 2015, QNB believe global disinflationary pressures and the strengthening of the dollar As will make inflation remained near zero level in 2015.

As a result, the Fed will not raise interest rates as expected given the level of inflation is still below the target of 2 percent. If the Fed does raise interest rates, the impact on the global economy would be really bad.

> Low Volatility and challenge

Volatility seems low in all markets except rates, although low liquidity may lead to some increase in the meantime. Volatility of economic data fell to a new bottom. Unemployment will decrease and the risk of recession in the US is also low.

> The Low Rate of Return

All types of assets will provide a low rate and the effect becomes something important. The rate of return on equity is still more attractive than bonds and the like. Equity multiples will remain above average and may move higher, even in the US.

> Differences Remain Market Lasts

The difference between market growth and monetary policies throughout the developed world will continue into next year. The Fed is likely to slow to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan remained at the previous level.

The value of the US dollar will also be strengthened due to the difference in interest rates between the US and other countries.

> European Recession

The eurozone will enter another deflation and recession. The sharp drop in oil prices will push the euro zone into the era of deflation in 2015 with a number of efforts from the European Central Bank to avoid losses.

This condition will lead to investment and consumption are much weaker and push the currency in the area went into recession.

> Chinese Economic Growth Slowing

China's economic growth will slow to 6-7 percent over the next few years. The best opportunity to express a positive view of the market is likely to come when investors are moving towards such extreme pessimism earlier this year or in the summer of 2013. The decline in house prices and weaker global commodity prices will continue to depress domestic demand and creating a very strong disinflationary pressures.

Chinese government should try to do a further stimulus to the economy, although there will be enough to prevent the country from the economic slowdown. Slowing it also will push inflation to near zero.

> The emergence of the New Order Oil

The price of oil will be lower for some time. Maybe it would be a problem for energy stocks and commodities such as copper and aluminum are used in the oil production process.

> Crisis oil exporter

Some developing countries that export oil would fall on the balance of payments crises. The decline in world oil prices will encourage countries like Russia and Venezuela defaulted on its debt that is due.

These conditions can also be transmitted to other developing countries and encourage international agencies to intervene.

> Commodity prices

Low commodity prices and global economic slowdown will have an impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries.

As of this moment, the decline in oil prices will encourage slowdown ambitious infrastructure investment programs in several major countries.

> Developing Country Markets Improved

Many emerging markets will fix the imbalance, which triggered the oil and commodity prices lower so as to provide deflation and increase market growth.

> Low Inflation

Sluggish labor market, as evidenced by the low wage inflation, would survive. The risk of deflation will force other central banks to act as inflation remains below their target.

> Fixed Mighty Dollar

The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of countries other G10 members still mighty.

Overall, global growth in 2015-2016 will be weakened even further than the previous year. Referring to the IMF World Economic Outlook projections in October, the global economy will grow from 3.3 percent to 3.8 percent in 2015.

Hopefully there is still optimism the global economy in the 2016/7.....'s.

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Political Component Pricing On Government Jokowi

The fall of crude oil prices, which devastated the economies of many countries, is considered a political. In fact, thick with political conspiracy.

Mr. President Jokowi Fuel Prices Down, Prices Staple Stable Whenever ?.

When fuel prices go down and occurs When crude oil prices are low, should would not want all food prices and public transportation costs go down as well.

Now that fuel prices go down, but food prices and the cost of public transportation still averse down. If it's like this, entrepreneurs, owners of public transportation, public transportation drivers, and rogue traders, who want their own wishes that make economic vandals in this country.

Lest the merchants and entrepreneurs accord just as much profit from its activities. Rollicking berkospirasi colonizing nation itself.

Learning from the past, has repeatedly experienced by Indonesia. As fuel prices rise, then the other prices go up. However, is not true if the fuel prices down. Many fictional pretext, when down the fuel no decrease in inflation or economic growth significantly. And so forth reasons that sometimes do not make sense, tend to want to own victory.

Society hopes Jokowi government immediately intervene to control the prices of basic necessities in the market. Because if it continues to rise will affect the economic uncertainty society.

Government Jokowi most responsible in ensuring basic needs will be dragged down the price decline in the price of fuel oil (BBM), which has been done in the near future.

Good news, the policy of fuel coming again of CMEA Djalil. He mentioned that the new price of fuel in Frebruari will be determined based on the Mean of Plats Singapore (MOPS) counted 24 Carre 2014 until 24 January 2015. fall of world oil prices up to US $ 50 per barrel in turn will be followed by a decrease in fuel prices in Indonesia.

"Premium price is lowered as they drop in crude oil prices on the world market, but when the world market price of crude oil rose again it will be adjusted again. That is because the premium price has followed the market mechanism or without subsidies, "he said.

Mr. Minister Sofyan Djalil to the media also said that now is being calculated losses and we will adjust. I'm sure in February 2015 will go down again. The government plans to set the price of premium fuel in two weeks according to world oil prices. "If pertamax set in two weeks. For a while the premium price is set once a month, but may be adjusted in two weeks.

In February the government berenca down again, the lower middle class hopes followed the decline in the price of staples or other goods and services. Because after the fuel price hike back to the discourse of decline in prices was not yet under control needs. And again, if the prices of all been on the market, what it means to the people in the care of a free market without government protection with respect to its existence.

The drop in world oil prices is not just a mere economic game. Behind all that, there is a big scenario played the oil producing countries of the world. Political scenario is referred to as the main motive in the global competition.

The oil game has been going on for the past few months. All countries are now affected, either positively or negatively. So, who is to play the politics of oil since June 2014 and up to now? Political analysts pointed to Saudi Arabia and the United States (US) to be the mastermind behind the drop in world oil prices.

They use oil market depressed for to destroy his enemies, especially Iran and Russia. Petroleum can be a deadly weapon to weaken a country, especially in terms of economics and politics. According to Edward Lucas of The Economist magazine, Arabia and the US to use oil to weaken the powers of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.

Despite US and European economic sanctions related to the Russian annexation of the Crimea and the geopolitical game in eastern Ukraine, Moscow remains resilient and confident. However, the recent decline in world oil prices makes Russia furious and half desperate.

Russia is the country's third largest oil producer in the world. Russia depends on oil prices. "Nearly half of Russia's revenue comes from oil and gas," Lucas said, quoted by the Daily Mail. Oil prices reached the lowest point in the last five years, under USD50 / barrel last week made Russia almost stopped breathing.

The price of oil is too low it can weaken the ruble, Russian currency. It causes panic. The movement of money out of Russia increased sharply. It became the worst days for Russia. The world is to know how oil prices are so low is able to destroy the Soviet Union in 1991 because of the weakening economy.

Now, low oil became a serious threat on the Putin dictatorship trying to revive the Soviet empire. The question is now, whether Putin will fall?

"Political component always determines the price of oil. The moment of crisis is also due to political, "Putin said in an interview with Chinese media, published in the Russian presidential website. Putin has had a special strategy. He no longer sell oil and gas to European markets. Its proximity to Asia Pacific countries make Putin more confident.

In addition, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the decline in world oil prices recently was a political conspiracy.

In a statement, Rouhani not specifically mention the countries he considered conspiring drop in world oil prices.

"The decline in oil prices is not something ordinary and nothing to do with the economy, is not only related to the global recession," said President Hassan Rouhani.

"The main reason is political conspiracy by certain countries.

Previous Iranian government tried to suppress the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce production quotas as an effort to raise the price, but in a recent meeting of OPEC decided not to change the amount of production. 

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Back Down, Touch the World Oil Prices 66 US Dollars

NEW YORK: Oil prices fell on Tuesday (12/02/2014) local time (Wednesday morning GMT) after the Iraqi government and the autonomous Kurdish reached an agreement to increase oil exports.

The benchmark US light sweet crude or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in January, down 2.12 US dollars, to close at 66.88 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Benchmark London, Brent crude for January delivery settled at $ 70.54 a barrel, down 2.00 dollars from Monday's close.

The Iraqi government and the Kurdish autonomous region on Tuesday announced an agreement settling their long-running dispute over the budget and oil exports.

Under the deal, which came into force at the beginning of next year, 250,000 barrels per day of oil will be exported from the autonomous regions and 300,000 barrels per day more of Kirkuk province.

The new deal that could help push the daily production of OPEC member Iraq passes three million barrels per day, up from about 2.5 million barrels in November.

"The additional 550,000 barrels per day is not a large amount of oil, but the market is already weak. It pushed prices down," said Michael Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research.

Oil prices "hit" last weekend after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its production ceiling despite abundant supply pushed prices sharply lower.

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OIL AND GAS MAFIA: Pertamina "Tired". be made a scapegoat

YOGYAKARTA .Pertamina expects oil and gas reform team can immediately reveal accusations of oil mafia.

Related to that, PT Pertamina (Persero) hope Gas Governance Reform Team led Faisal Basri to immediately prove the presence or absence in the company's oil mafia.

"Please be proven, if there is, I'm soon to be adjudicated. Do institutions (involved), but elements oknumnya," said Vice President of Corporate Communications Pertamina Ali Proclamation University Campus Mundakir in Yogyakarta, Tuesday (02/12/2014).

He said he wants the oil and gas reform initiatives that the government can be accomplished. Thus, the various allegations regarding the existence of oil mafia in scope Pertamina may soon be answered.

"We are waiting for the realization of what later. We are tired of so 'scapegoat' continue," he said.

According to Ali, Pertamina fully supports efforts to eradicate mafia oil through Oil and Gas Governance Reform Team established by the government.

Thus, any data or other purposes that will be required by the team, will be facilitated.

"Let the team formed by the government, NGOs could be accounted for, we love (data)," he said.

In the framework of corporate transparency, he asserted until now Pertamina regularly report to Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Directorate General of Oil and Gas of data import and export of oil.

Neither of the origin of imported oil, oils, as well as the value of imports and exports.

"In fact, before Pertamina into a public company, we've done the best practice as a public company (serving business transparency)," he said.

Oil and Gas Governance Reform Team led economist Faisal Basri was formed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of SOEs to review the government's policy in the energy sector from upstream to downstream, as well as reviewing the existence of SKK Migas and BP Migas.

Polemic on the role, performance, business processes, Pertamina Energy Trading Limited (Petral) is becoming one of the focus of the study team.

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CONFERENCES : OUTLOOK ENERGY & MINING

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) entered a new phase in the Cabinet Work. Work yet to be done is to fulfill the aspiration to become a country with energy independence. To meet that goal, the oil and gas industry (Oil and Gas) and the national coal still be the belle seiiring with renewable energy development efforts.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources will parse the Sudirman Said convey barriers that have existed in the energy and mining sectors. One is uncertainty about the legal framework that ensures business activities. In the oil and gas industry, the problems are often so the discussion is the contractor cooperation contract (PSC) which is about to expire.

Until the next five years, there were about 21 PSC will be out of contract. Ironically, the KKS 21 produces about 635,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2013, or about 30% of the national oil and gas production capacity. Uncertainty of legal protection to be one of the many obstacles that often arise and affect the national downward trend in oil and gas production.

Therefore, the most important homework in today's oil and gas sector is immediately set the legal framework such as the provision of oil and gas contract extension fair and transparent. The regulation should also support efforts to create a conducive investment climate Gas and creating synergies between the businesses.

In the coal mining and minerals too. Until today, the Government has almost completed the entire contract renegotiation of mining companies, both PKP2B or KK. But on the whole only PT Vale Indonesia, Tbk, which has amended the contract, while the rest of the new stage of signing a memorandum of understanding. The government has been consistent in requiring all products downstream of the mine. However, this obligation is not supported by the availability of adequate infrastructure, particularly electricity.

Coal mines also highlighted sharply during 2014. During this year the price of this commodity has not been improved, much compared to the price of coal in the era of glory which reached US $ 118.49 per ton. The government also could not encourage the consumption of coal in the country in an effort to boost the market and price improvement. At the same time the government actually issued a moratorium on permits other policies such as traders, as well as the planned increase in IUP royalty obligation to pay royalties in advance.

This is where the role of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources as the manager of the energy and mining sector more swiftly prosecuted. Especially now governance structure slightly changed with the shift of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources under the coordination of the Coordinating Ministry for maritime.

One Day Seminar

Related day seminar was held in Energy and Mining Prospects 2015. Through the speakers who come from the government as a regulator, businesses and commodity market analysts, the event is expected to give a picture of what the condition of Oil and Gas and Mining industry next year.

The seminar was divided into two parts. The first section opened with a keynote speech by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, which lasted for one full day and focus on the national oil and gas industry. The second part discusses in depth the problem of mining minerals and coal as well as government and business projections for the challenges and opportunities in 2015.

Aims and Objectives

1. Provide more comprehensive picture regarding the condition of Oil and Gas and Mining industry next year

2. Being the event we share information and also how to deal with difficult situations that will still be a viable next year

3. Provide an overview of government policy related to the Oil and Gas and Mining sector in the next year.

Place and Date of Execution

This seminar will be held on Wednesday, January 28th, 2015 held at The Dharmawangsa Hotel, Jl. Brawijaya, South Jakarta consists of two parts:

1. National Oil and Gas Industry Outlook 2015 (09:00 pm to 16:00 pm)

2. Mineral and Coal Prospects 2015 (19:00 pm - 21:00 pm)

Speakers and Session Time

PART I

Keynote Speech

Sudirman Said - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources

First Session

Energy Outlook 2015 in Regulatory Perspective

The Future of Oil and Gas Contract and Law certainties

Johannes Widjanarko - Plt. Head of Oil and Gas SKK

Naryanto Wagimin - Plt. Director General of Oil and Gas

Kardaya Warnika - Chairman of the House of Representatives Commission VII

Second Session

2015 Energy Outlook 2015 in Bussiness Perspective

PT Pertamina (Persero)

PT Total Indonesie

PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia

Observers Reforminer Institute of Oil and Gas

PART II

Mining Outlook 2015 in Regulatory and busniness Perspective

The Potential of Mineral and Coal Sector for National Economic Growth

R. Sukhyar - Director General Mining

Martiono Hadianto - Chairman of IMA

Bob Kamandanu - Chairman of ICMA

* In Confirmation

Organizers:

Magazine MINE

Graha MINE

Jl. Captain Tendean No. 15

South Jakarta 12790

Phone: +62 21 799 8823

Fax: +62 21 799 2616

Email: seminar@tambang.co.id

iklan@tambang.co.id

CPO Release Of Anti Dumping

JAKARTA, Indonesia has paid 180 million euros as a result of EU policy which imposes anti-dumping duty for products of crude palm oil (CPO), namely biodiesel from Indonesia since 2012. Ironically, the policy was not just targeting large oil entrepreneurs in Indonesia, but also must be borne by small palm farmers.

According to the Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) Fadil Hasan, to put an end to the burdensome policies, Indonesia must win at the WTO panel. Condition, Indonesia must have strong political bargaining position in the WTO.

"Oh yes (very important political bargaining), do we have an argument, the law of all kinds," said Fadhil Hasan when met after the show IPOC 2014 in London, Friday (11/28/2014).

He said Indonesia has the right to bring the case to the WTO because it includes members of the WTO. In addition, anti-dumping duty policy of Europe is also considered as a barrier to trade CPO Indonesia to Europe.

The struggle in the WTO to be conducted. Because until now, the European market is still a huge market for Indonesian CPO. Based on data from 2013, Europe still occupy the position of the two Indonesian CPO importer. Hence the importance of the European market for Indonesian palm oil, he said, does not agree with the opinion of a handful of people who ask Indonesia to leave the European market.

The thing to do is fight for Indonesian CPO through the WTO panel. Based on data from 2013, exports of crude palm oil (Crude Palm Oil / CPO) Indonesia and its derivatives reached 21.2 million tons, up 16 percent compared to 2012.

CPO exports amounted to 21.2 million tons was comprised of CPO exports to India reached 4.2 million tons, 4 million tons Europe and China 2.6 million tons. Meanwhile, non-traditional markets are also considered grew last year are the countries in the Middle East and Africa by 33 percent. CPO exports to Pakistan, for example, last year reached 900,000 tons

Reduce Averse OPEC Supply, Oil Prices Down

Jakarta - Decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is reducing the production makes the price of crude oil dropped to the lowest level in four years. (January Crude Oil Down to US $ 105.8 per barrel)

Economist of PT Samuel Asset Management, Lana Soelistianingsih, said last night the OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, decided to keep the supply of 30 million barrels per day despite slowing global economy. "As a result, the price of crude oil WTI ambles directly to US $ 69.95 a barrel, while Brent of US $ 72.58 per barrel." (ICP December 2013 Reach US $ 107.2 per barrel)

OPEC member countries is the world's largest oil producer with production of 30 million barrels per day since 2012. The decision maintains this supply will continue to apply until the next OPEC meeting on June 15, 2015.

Crude oil prices are already down 34 percent from its highest position at the beginning of the year amounted to US $ 102 per barrel. These commodities continued to weaken since China announced its economic slowdown since the first quarter of 2014. If the global economy does not support the demand for crude oil, the price will continue to decline.

According to Lana, the decline in crude oil prices will encourage a sharp slowdown in the prices of other commodities, especially gold, minerals, and mining. "In contrast, the decline in oil prices make the dollar is getting stronger," said Lana.

In the money market transactions today, the dollar index rose against all world currencies. The rupiah fell to 12,200 per US dollar. A drop in oil prices may also contribute to the Asian stock markets this morning that the compact is in the red zone.

Pertamina & Gas Company 9 ASEAN Countries Agree to Create Buffer Stock Oil

Denpasar - PT Pertamina, the national oil company with 9 countries in South-East Asia Region plans to make oil stocks for the region in each country.

Plt. Pertamina president director Mohammed Hus en say in principle the plan has been approved by all oil and gas companies that are members of the ASEAN Council on Petroleum (Ascope), but not technical.

"So if a country other deficiencies that can transmit, and this has been seriously thinking about it," he said after the meeting Ascope met in Kuta, Thursday (11/27/2014).

According to him, the idea emerged as a form of solidarity among ASEAN member countries as well as improving the energy connectivity in the region as a joint effort maintaining durability, accessibility, affordability and sustainability of energy.

He asserted that each country will be budgeted to be used as a backup supply for the member states in distress can use the stock of other countries. With so resistance can be achieved regional energy sector.

However, he added, has not agreed to the concept of its use are based on calculations of buying and selling. Although technically not yet been agreed, the idea of ​​forming a regional oil stocks are very important.

If this idea is executed, Pertamina will prepare the necessary things to note there is permission from regulators related to it.

"If we wants the plan may soon be realized. Pertamina is committed to realizing energy security making it easier for each country to get access to energy resources," he explained.

Meanwhile, in addition to discussing regional stocks, also discussed the preparation of the Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline Map which has a network of approximately 3,377 km of gas transportation, and equipped with the new information in the form of LNG in several countries

PT.BA Advanced Technology Will Have Change So Coal Oil

PT Bukit Asam Tbk. exploring cooperation with Australian company related coal processing technology into synthetic oil.

Director of PT.BA Milawarma said although not easy, the company wants to focus on acquiring the technology so that it can be brought to Indonesia.

"This technology is not yet commercially available in the market, but it is enough proven and certified. In the remainder of this year, PT.BA will focus on the acquisition, "he said on Tuesday (10/28/2014).

Related to the concept of cooperation, Milawarma said PTBA could just buy the technology or co-owns the Australian company's shares.

"So, we acquisition that could be brought to Indonesia," he said.

He explained to the coal processing technology, about 1 ton of coal can be processed into synthetic oil and 1 Barek coking coal.

"In addition, the cost of the process is not too expensive, the method is not complicated process, coal can be directly processed into synthetic oil and high-quality coal," said Milawarma.